Latest FBI Data is Mixed Bag for Top 10 Safest Cities

By Chelsey D. Goff | March 4, 2014

The FBI’s latest data shows crime dropping nationally; however, the results for the Top 10 Safest Cities were not all great news. Across the country, violent crime decreased 5.4 percent during the first six months of 2013 compared with the same period in 2012. Violent crime reporting was ahead of prior year figures in half of our Safest Cities, most notably by nearly 28 percent in #5 ranking Scottsdale, Ariz. The southwestern city’s rape and aggravated assault figures in particular were ahead of prior year reporting. On the opposite end of the spectrum, #6 ranking Henderson, Nev. saw its violent crime decrease more than 25 percent at the beginning of 2013, with significant drops in the same categories of rape and aggravated assault.

The FBI’s semiannual report covers January to June 2013 — the most recent period for which comprehensive crime statistics are available. Law Street’s analysis of this preliminary data for each of the Top 10 Safest Cities Over 200,000 appears below as an update to our original rankings published last Fall. Changes in these preliminary statistics, included below, compared with the same time period in the previous year provide key information on emerging trends in these important cities ahead of the full-year coverage of rankings that will be available this Fall. Click here for developing Crime in America 2014 coverage.

1. Irvine, Calif.

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
Irvine, Calif. — the safest American city over 200,000 — was slightly ahead of its 2012 violent crime rate, with an increase of 9.26 percent during the period January to June 2013. The large percentage increases in both murder and rape reflect very small numbers of actual cases: the city had two murders compared to one in the comparative period, and nine rapes compared with five in the same period of 2012. Robberies in the city decreased by nearly 16 percent to 16 instances.

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: +9.26%
Murder: +100%
Rape: +80%
Robbery: -15.79%
Aggravated Assault: +10.34%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF IRVINE’S 2012 RANKING

2. Gilbert, Ariz.

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
Gilbert, Ariz., Law’s Street’s #2 Safest City, experienced fairly consistent levels of violent crime during the first six months of 2013 versus prior year. The city’s total violent crime decreased by just under one percent, with 102 violent crimes versus 103 in the comparative period. Notably, there was only one murder during this period (versus four in the first six months of 2012). Rape reporting was up by 33 percent, but the yearly figures are not comparable due to changes in the FBI’s new definition of rape.

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: -0.97%
Murder: -75%
Rape: -33.33%*
Robbery: -8%
Aggravated Assault: +10.77%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF GILBERT’S 2012 RANKING

3. Plano, Texas

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE 
The FBI did not include Plano, Texas in its 2013 preliminary data — no explanation for this omission is provided, nor did the FBI respond to comment by the time this post published. According to the Plano Police Department, the city submits its data to the FBI on a monthly basis and should have been included in the Preliminary Semiannual Report. The figures below were provided directly to Law Street by the Plano Police Department. The #3 Safest City’s crime was down in the first six months of 2013, with the most dramatic changes in robbery and aggravated assault (8 and 18 fewer instances, respectively). Plano had two murders, compared with in the prior year, as well as 4 more rapes. Overall, violent crime was down nearly 12 percent between January and June 2013 compared with the same period in 2012.

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: -11.73%
Murder: 100%
Rape: 17.39%
Robbery: -16%
Aggravated Assault: -17.14%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF PLANO’S 2012 RANKING

4. Fremont, Calif.

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
Violent crime in Fremont, Calif. was up slightly between January and June 2013 versus the same period in 2012. While murder and aggravated assault were both down during this period (-50% and -25,39%, respectively), there were 12 rapes (3 in 2012) and 80 robberies (63 in 2012), accounting for the slight uptick in total violent crime.

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: +3.33%
Murder: -50%
Rape: +300%
Robbery: +26.98%
Aggravated Assault: -24.39%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF FREMONT’S 2012 RANKING

5. Scottsdale, Ariz.

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
Scottsdale, Ariz., #5 in the rankings of the Safest Cities, experienced a 27.52 percent increase in violent crime during January to June 2013 compared to the same period in 2012. Murder remained constant (2 cases each year) and robbery declined just under four percent (49 robberies versus 51 in 2012); however, there was a spike in rape (29 cases) and aggravated assault (110 cases) during the relevant time period.

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: +27.52%
Murder: +/-0%
Rape: +61.11%
Robbery: -3.92%
Aggravated Assault: +41.03%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF SCOTTSDALE’S 2012 RANKING

6. Henderson, Nev.

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
Nevada’s second-largest city, Henderson, experienced a 25 percent decline in violent crime in the first six months of 2013 as compared to the same period in 2012. The figures were down in each of the four violent crime categories, including a 54 percent decrease in rape (16 in 2013; 35 in 2012) and 27 percent fewer aggravated assaults (71 in 2013; 98 in 2012). The #5 Safest City had only two murders, compared with three during the period in 2012.

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: -25.45%
Murder: -33.33%
Rape: -54.29%
Robbery: -11.36%
Aggravated Assault: -27.55%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF HENDERSON’S 2012 RANKING

7. Virginia Beach, Va.

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
Virginia Beach, Va., the most populous city in the Commonwealth, had a very small increase in violent crime between January and June 2013 compared with prior year figures. This is likely due to a seemingly huge jump in rape cases, however the figures for that particular category in Virginia Beach are not comparable year over year due to the FBI’s expanded reporting criteria. The #7 Safest City had 23 fewer aggravated assaults, one less murder, and the same number of robberies during the period at hand.

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: +3.57%
Murder: -9.09%
Rape: +115.63%*
Robbery: +/-0%
Aggravated Assault: -13.86%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF VIRGINIA BEACH’S 2012 RANKING

8. Irving, Texas

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
Irving, Texas, part of the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex, held its violent crime rate steady for the first six months of 2013 versus 2012. The #8 Safest City held its murder rate constant with only one case during each period, and the city had fewer rapes and aggravated assaults than prior year. Robbery increase slightly with 84 instances in 2013 compared with 63 in 2012.

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: +/-0%
Murder: +/-0%
Rape: -6.25%
Robbery: +33.33%
Aggravated Assault: -11.56%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF IRVING’S  2012 RANKING

9. Garland, Texas

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
Garland, the third Texas city to rank on this list, experienced a 16.55 percent decrease in violent crime between January and June 2013 compared to the same period in 2012, despite a slight uptick in rape reporting (30 versus 25). The city’s aggravated assault and robbery reported both decreased, down 21 and 29 instances, respectively, and there were three murders compared with four in 2012.

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: -16.55%
Murder: -25%
Rape: +20%
Robbery: -23.58%
Aggravated Assault: -16.67%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF GARLAND’S 2012 RANKING

10. Chula Vista, Calif.

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
Located just outside downtown San Diego, Chula Vista, California’s violent crime increased slightly in the first six months of 2013, from 283 to 298 instances in the four relevant categories. While there were three fewer murders than prior year, reporting of rape, robbery, and aggravated assault all increased (+3, +12, +3 cases year over year, respectively).

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: +5.30%
Murder: -60%
Rape: +18.75%
Robbery: +10.71%
Aggravated Assault: +2%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF CHULA VISTA’S 2012 RANKING

Research and analysis by Law Street’s Crime in America Team: Chelsey Goff, Anneliese Mahoney, Ashley Powell, and Kevin Rizzo.

Sources:

Violent crime, population, murder, and officer statistics are from the FBI Preliminary Semiannual Uniform Crime Report, January – June 2013.

Click here to read more Crime in America coverage.

*The figure shown for the 2013 rape offense was reported using the new definition of rape and is not comparable to previous years’ historical forcible rape data.

Note: A previous version of this post did not include data for Plano, Texas as it was not provided by the FBI in the Preliminary Semiannual Uniform Crime Report, January-June 2013.