During a meeting in Seoul on Tuesday, South Korean and U.S. officials described guidelines the two allies would follow in dealing with North Korea, which tested a powerful missile on Sunday. With a new administration installed in South Korea last week, a uniform approach between the U.S. and South Korea toward North Korea is facing new uncertainties.

Moon Jae-in, who was elected president last week, is the country’s first liberal leader in years. He supports a more dialogue-based strategy in cooling the North’s nuclear ambitions than his U.S. counterpart, President Donald Trump. The Trump Administration has previously indicated “all option are on the table” in regard to responding to the North Korean threat–including a pre-emptive military strike. But now, U.S. and South Korean leaders appear to be on the same page.

Yoon Young-chan, Moon’s spokesman, detailed the approach to North Korea he discussed on Tuesday with Matthew Pottinger, the Asia director on the National Security Council. “First, the ultimate goal is to completely dismantle the North Korean nuclear weapons,” Yoon said. “Second, to that end, both sides will employ all means, including sanctions and dialogue. Third, dialogue with North Korea is possible when the circumstances are right. Fourth, to achieve these goals, South Korea and the United States will pursue drastic and practical joint approaches.”

Liberals in South Korea, including Moon, favor a diplomatic approach–like increased economic investment–to dampen the nuclear threat from its northern neighbor, in contrast to South Korean conservatives’ hard-line approach. Previous diplomatic overtures to North Korea have failed, and critics say investment from past liberal administrations in South Korea have ironically boosted the North’s nuclear capabilities.

Both Trump and Moon have indicated they would be willing to meet with North Korea’s young leader, Kim Jong-un. North Korean and South Korean leaders last met for face-to-face talks in 2007. In launching a missile test on Sunday, by some estimates its most powerful yet, North Korea reminded the world that its nuclear and military ambitions remain unbroken. The missile flew nearly 500 miles before falling into the sea.

South Korean officials recently said that North Korea’s nuclear program is progressing at a quicker pace than expected. And despite its failed launch last month and recent slaps on the wrist from China, its foremost trade partner and benefactor, North Korea remains a threat to the U.S. and its allies in the region, namely Japan and South Korea.

On Tuesday, U.S. and South Korean officials said a summit meeting between Moon and Trump could come as early as next month. Last Wednesday, when Moon was sworn in at the National Assembly, he said he would “do whatever it takes to help settle peace on the Korean Peninsula,” adding: “If necessary, I will fly immediately to Washington.”

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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Last month, President Donald Trump criticized China for not doing enough to curtail North Korea’s nuclear program: “China has been taking out massive amounts of money & wealth from the U.S. in totally one-sided trade, but won’t help with North Korea. Nice!” Trump tweeted. China seemed to respond to Trump on Saturday by banning coal imports from North Korea through the rest of the year.

Now, the ball is in Trump’s court. How will he engage the insular, and increasingly insolent, country of North Korea? He had a muted response when it tested a ballistic missile earlier this month. Trump’s willingness to actually engage with North Korea will be tested in March, when a meeting is planned between Pyongyang officials and former U.S. officials in New York. If the White House issues visas for the North Korean officials–it has not explicitly said it will or will not–then that would send a signal that Trump is open to diplomatic engagement, something his predecessor, President Barack Obama, was unwilling to do.

Whether the New York meeting takes place or not, China’s decision to freeze imports of North Korean coal is a decisive action that could weaken its resolve. Aside from being a response to Trump, China’s move is also likely the result of increased frustration at North Korea’s endless stream of provocations. Just last week, the half-brother of North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, was assassinated in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. North Korean officials are suspected as having played a role in the attack.

China’s coal freeze could badly hurt North Korea’s already precarious economy. For one, coal is North Korea’s most lucrative export; it accounts for 34 to 40 percent of its exports, most of which ends up being shipped to China. In response to North Korea’s nuclear test last September, the United Nations Security Council imposed new sanctions that urged China to cap its coal imports from North Korea. But China, fearful that a collapsed North Korea could lead to an influx of refugees and a united Korean peninsula backed by the U.S., has circumvented the UN sanctions. That is, until its announcement on Saturday.

“Imports of coal produced in North Korea — including shipments already declared to the customs but yet to be released — will be suspended for the remainder of this year,” said a statement from China’s Ministry of Commerce. However, a Foreign Ministry official said Tuesday that the move is a bureaucratic procedure, and that China, within the first six weeks of the year, has already reached its annual quota for North Korean coal imports.

A clue to China’s unexpected stiff-arm of North Korean coal came last Friday, when Secretary of State Rex Tillerson met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Germany. According to State Department spokesman Mark Toner, Tillerson suggested to Yi that China “use all available tools to moderate North Korea’s destabilizing behavior.”

Diplomatic efforts to reign in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, which have been stretched under Kim Jong-un, have largely failed. Until 2009, China hosted seven-nation talks, which included seats at the table for the U.S., Russia, China, and North Korea. Similar talks, like the one planned for March in New York, have taken place in Kuala Lumpur and Berlin.

But the reclusive country has not budged in ceding its nuclear ambition; it has ramped up its efforts. As the international community–including the U.S. and now, potentially, China–takes a firm stance against North Korea, the question becomes: how long can it continue to provoke without being severely punished?

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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As a ballistic missile launched skyward in the northern mountains of North Korea on Saturday, President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan were relaxing in Palm Beach, Florida. The two leaders were dining Saturday night at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort when the call came: North Korea launched an intermediate-range missile off its eastern coast; it traveled 310 feet before plunking into the Sea of Japan.

Hours later, at about 10:30 p.m., Trump and Abe delivered a joint-statement on North Korea’s latest provocation. Abe called the missile test “absolutely intolerable.” He added: “North Korea must fully comply with the relevant UN Security Council resolutions,” which implore the insular nation to halt its nuclear weapons program and missile tests, which have been consistently launched over at least the past year.

North Korea poses a challenge for Trump: its leader, Kim Jong-un, has shown a proclivity to provoke, and Trump has a tendency to respond rashly–and loudly–to provocation. But three weeks into his presidency, Trump seems to be adopting a muted tone toward North Korea, and in his remarks on Saturday, he showed that he won’t be easily baited into a conflict.

After Abe spoke, Trump took to the dais, and simply said: “I just want everybody to understand and fully know that the United States of America stands behind Japan, its great ally, 100 percent.” There was no direct mention of North Korea or its missile launch. It is unclear if Trump will respond in some other capacity in the coming days or weeks. But on Sunday, Trump’s senior policy adviser, Stephen Miller, hinted at how the U.S. might counter future North Korean threats.

#BREAKING: North Korea publishes video of yesterday’s missile test pic.twitter.com/0732BlcJ3m

— Amichai Stein (@AmichaiStein1) February 13, 2017

“President Trump is going to go to Congress and ask them to invest in our military so once again we will have unquestioned military strength beyond anything anybody can imagine,” Miller said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” Miller called the joint-statement between Abe and Trump a “show of strength.” But the absence of any mention of South Korea, the most vulnerable target of a missile launched from its northern neighbor, was rare for a U.S. statement following a North Korean missile launch.

“I was glad he issued the statement with the prime minister of Japan, but he ought to do it quickly with South Korea,” Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said on “Face the Nation.” He added: “South Korea is probably more susceptible to North Korea’s virulence than any other country.”

According to the South Korean military and the U.S. Strategic Command, the missile was an intermediate-range Musudan missile. While it was the first direct test of Trump’s North Korean stance during his presidency, he did have a response to a North Korean threat while he was the president-elect. On New Year’s Day, Kim said North Korea was entering the “final stage in preparations” for testing an intercontinental missile, which could reach the U.S. Trump responded on Twitter:

North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S. It won’t happen!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 2, 2017

And while Trump made no mention of South Korea on Saturday, his Defense Secretary James Mattis visited the country in his first overseas trip a few weeks ago. He affirmed the U.S.’s commitment to the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system, which will soon be deployed to South Korea. “I talked to President Trump and he wanted to make a very clear statement about the priority that we place on this alliance between our two nations,” Mattis said.

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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In the latest attempt to cripple North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) imposed new restrictions on its coal export industry. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon called the new sanctions, which were unanimously approved by the 15-member council on Wednesday, “the toughest and most comprehensive” yet.

The sanctions are a direct rebuke to Pyongyang’s largest and most recent nuclear test that occurred in early September. They will aim to trim $700 million from the insulated country’s coal revenues, which UN member-states hope will lead to diplomatic discussions. The sanctions limit North Korea to exporting up to 7.5 million metric tons of coal in 2017, or to bringing in $400 million in revenue, whichever figure is reached first.

“So long as the DPRK makes the choice it has made, which is to pursue the path of violations instead of the path of dialogue, we will continue to work to increase the pressure and defend ourselves and allies from this threat,” said U.S. Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power, referring to the country’s official title, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

China, perhaps even more so than North Korea, will be responsible for ensuring the new sanctions are enforced. As the foremost customer of North Korean coal, and its chief financier and source of aid, China cannot lean on the vague language of previous sanctions to skirt around the new limits. The last round of sanctions, imposed in March, also aimed to curb the country’s coal exports, but with an exception: exports could surpass the imposed limits if they supported “livelihood purposes.”

China used that language as a license to continue importing North Korean coal in copious amounts. In fact, after the sanctions took effect in April, China imported a record amount of coal from its nuclear neighbor. The new sanctions clarified the “livelihood” exception as being reserved only for North Korean citizens.

North Korea responded to the sanctions through its state-controlled Korean Central News Agency. “Obama and his lackeys are sadly mistaken if they calculate that they can force the DPRK to abandon its line of nuclear weaponization and undermine its status as a nuclear power through base sanctions to pressurize it,” the statement said, adding that the sanctions came from the instructions of the U.S. The statement had an ominous conclusion, saying the U.S. will “be held wholly accountable in case the situation on the Korean peninsula and in the region is pushed to an uncontrollable phase.”

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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On a North Korean state news broadcast on Friday, an anchorwoman gazed downward as she read a prepared government statement: “Scientists and technicians of the Workers Party of Korea carried out a nuclear explosion test to judge the power of a nuclear warhead.”

“We will continue to strengthen our nuclear capabilities to protect our sovereignty. We have now standardized and minimized nuclear warheads… We can now produce small nuclear warheads any time we desire,” the anchor said.

Along with the country’s official statement, evidence of a nuclear launch came through an artificially caused 5.3 earthquake, detected by the U.S. Geological Survey near the site of previous nuclear test launches by Pyongyang. 

The test represents the fifth nuclear test conducted by North Korea, and the second in 2016. The first was in January. According to the South Korean Defense Ministry, Friday’s test was North Korea’s most potent to date. Since October 2006, when North Korea began testing its nuclear capabilities, the explosive power of its tests have steadily grown, from less than one kiloton of energy in 2006 to six to seven in 2013. Its latest attempt registered at 10 kilotons. For context, the atomic bomb the U.S. dropped on Hiroshima, Japan in 1945 was 15 kilotons.

Under heavy international sanctions and facing weakening ties with nearly the entire international community, minus China, which it still trades with, North Korea has been conducting missile tests seemingly every week. Most recently, it launched three ballistic missiles last week toward Japan, one of which landed within 155 miles of a Japanese island. North Korea’s bombastic leader, Kim Jong-un, is increasingly worrying the international community with his antics.

North Korea claims successful test of nuclear warhead, its 5th and potentially most powerful https://t.co/6r9Lyg4otI pic.twitter.com/RMFHhvPnRp

— CNN (@CNN) September 9, 2016

North Korea faced condemnation from its Pacific neighbors as well as international actors. President Obama, in a statement released Friday morning, said the U.S. condemns “in the strongest possible terms as a grave threat to regional security and to international peace and stability.” The test represents a “flagrant violation of multiple UN Security Council Resolutions,” the statement said.

Occurring just days after the G-20 summit in Hangzhou, China, a meeting between leaders of the world’s leading industrial powers, the test came at a peculiar time: Friday marks the 68th anniversary of North Korea’s founding. While it is unclear whether the latest test demonstrates an ability to launch an actual nuclear warhead mounted atop a missile, Obama and his allies in East Asia are certainly taking the test as a credible threat.

In his statement, Obama said he spoke with President Park Geun-Hye of South Korea and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan, reiterating America’s “commitment to provide extended deterrence, guaranteed by the full spectrum of U.S. defense capabilities.”

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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