The New York Times calls it “Capitol Hill’s official scorekeeper.” NPR says it’s made up of a group of “supernerds” who give Congress information. If you’ve been following news about the Senate’s struggle to pass a health care bill, you’ve likely heard its acronym: CBO. But what is the Congressional Budget Office? And how credible are its forecasts? Read on to learn the basics about the government’s nonpartisan group of go-to experts.

The Congressional Budget Office Origins

The Congressional Budget Office was established under President Richard Nixon, as one part of the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974. Upset with Nixon’s practice of impounding, or not spending, funds that had been allocated for specific projects, Congress drafted the bill to increase congressional power of the purse and regulate the budget process.

Aside from setting up the CBO as an independent agency, the rest of the bill revamped the government’s budget process and established the House and Senate Budget Committees. Alice Rivlin, appointed by Democrats, was the first director of the office, and is credited with solidifying its culture of nonpartisanship.

“Free From Partisan Tinge”

The body was set up to be nonpartisan, to “provide the Budget Committees and the Congress with objective, impartial information about budgetary and economic issues,” according to the agency’s website. In practice, this emphasis on objectivity means that the CBO’s data is either revered or loathed by either party when politically convenient.

Since its inception, objectivity has remained an integral part of the CBO’s mission. In a 1976 memo to staff, Rivlin wrote that the work of the CBO must be “free from partisan tinge,” adding that any appearance of taking sides in a legislative battle would put the trustworthiness of its information in jeopardy.

“We are not to be advocates,” the memo reads. “We are not to make recommendations or to characterize, even by implication, particular policy positions as good or bad, wise or unwise.”

To ensure objectivity and provide information that politicians will respect, the CBO goes through a multi-step process. Staff analysts begin by reading relevant research and literature on related topics and analyzing data from government agencies and committees. They then consult experts from universities, think tanks, and industry groups, as well as federal, state, and local government representatives to get outside perspectives from different backgrounds. The research and reports are then reviewed internally, by employees and analysts of different levels, and externally by more experts.

As a rule, the CBO makes no policy recommendations. Its findings are facts-only reports on data and relevant research, condensed into reports that representatives and the public can read and understand before drawing their own conclusions. The agency also has a set of strict policies to prevent employees from incurring any potential financial conflicts of interest and to limit their partisan political activities.

“Alice Rivlin” Courtesy of New America: License (CC BY 2.0)

What Exactly Does the CBO Do?

Throughout the year, the CBO puts out a series of products–predictions, reports, analyses–that provide information about the economic impact of proposed or enacted legislation. This is the “between the lines” information that sponsors of a bill might not reveal, or even know themselves. It helps the general public understand the effects of policy, and helps politicians make decisions on whether or not to support certain policies.

The agency makes the news most often for its cost estimates, which it creates for “virtually every bill approved by Congressional committees.” A recent cost estimate of the American Health Care Act found that the act would result in 23 million more Americans uninsured over the next decade. All of the cost estimates can be found on the agency’s website.

The office’s budget projections, which cover time periods of 10 and 25 years, show how changing population demographics and economic trends would affect the federal budget and spending, provided laws remain stable. The outlooks also show the economic impact of possible alternative policies.

In addition to these, the CBO publishes analyses of the president’s budget, a monthly budget review, analyses of federal mandates, scorekeeping for legislation, and various other analytic reports and data compilations.

Who’s in Charge?

The head of CBO is appointed by Congress to a four-year term. The current head, Keith Hall, was nominated in 2015 by House Republicans and is the ninth director of the office. All staff are appointed by the director without regard for political affiliation.

Currently, the agency has about 235 employees, including economists, lawyers, analysts, and policy wonks of all sorts. Staff are divided into eight divisions, each of which focuses on a particular aspect of government budget issues.

How Much Power Does the CBO Have?

The nonpartisan aspect of the CBO is what makes its predictions and reports so influential in Washington. The CBO is widely respected by politicians from both parties, as well as the mainstream media and the public. Though the reports avoid making value judgements on legislation, CBO scores can often be key in shaping policy. Sometimes, politicians or other parties to legislation will wait until the CBO analysis is released before committing to a bill.

CBO researchers also make it their mission to avoid too much jargon so that their work is transparent and can be understood by politicians and the general public. The reports and publications do not stand alone–the CBO makes sure to include descriptions of methodology and contextual information.

“Although much of the work that CBO does is extremely technical, the agency devotes substantial time and energy to presenting the work as clearly and non-technically as possible,” according to an agency document.

Cost estimates of proposed legislation are dependent upon the CBO’s baseline budget and economic projections, which show how the economy will fare under existing laws. The office acknowledges that the changing nature of laws and other economic and technical factors can affect the accuracy of this benchmark.

“Actual budget and economic outcomes are almost certain to differ from CBO’s projections even if the projections are a perfectly accurate forecast conditional on existing laws,” the same document reads. “The differences between projections and outcomes can be misleading measures of the quality of the projections unless adjustments are made for changes in laws.”

How Trusted are CBO Forecasts?

In general, politicians and experts from varying political backgrounds say the CBO is a trustworthy and important source of information, but the difference between projections and outcomes make some question the validity of CBO research­–especially when doing so is in line with their agenda.

The recent CBO report on “Trumpcare” prompted fiery critiques from members of the administration and congressional supporters of the bill. Tom Price, the secretary of health and human services, told reporters that the CBO’s projections were “not believable.” “We strenuously disagree with the report,” said Price, who was previously one of the House Republicans who nominated Keith Hall to be director of CBO.

“Trumpcare NO Healthcare for 42000 LOCAL Residents” Courtesy of John Flores: License (CC BY-SA 2.0)

White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer said the CBO was inaccurate, citing its incorrect predictions of how many enrollees Obamacare would have. “If you’re looking to get a bull’s-eye accurate prediction to where it’s going, the CBO was off by more than half last time,” Spicer said. “The last time they did this, they were wildly off.”

Newt Gingrich also criticized the CBO in an interview with a Fox News host, calling the agency “corrupt” and “dishonest.” “They should abolish the Congressional Budget Office,” Gingrich said. “It was totally wrong on Obamacare by huge, huge margins. I don’t trust a single word they have published, and I don’t believe them.”

Given these criticisms, it is important to note again that the CBO insists on nonpartisanship. Hall, the current head, was nominated by Republicans. The agency also has a long history of leaders breaking with assumed party lines to publish information. Rivlin, the first director, was a known Democrat, but CBO reports under President Jimmy Carter were just as critical as they had been during the Ford Administration. Health care under President Bill Clinton was slowed due to CBO reports under agency head Robert Reischauer, a Democrat. An early version of Obamacare was also critiqued heavily after CBO scores were released. “Notably, most (but not all) prominent flash points in CBO history occurred during a period of partisan alignment,” writes legislative politics expert Sarah Binder in The Washington Post.

“Doug Elmendorf, former head of CBO” Courtesy of Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy: License (CC BY-ND 2.0)

Conclusion

The CBO’s credibility and influence as a nonpartisan “scorekeeper” is vital to the legislative process. As the fight for healthcare reform continues in Congress, the CBO’s role and influence in Washington will become even more obvious. Learning the background of the agency and how to interpret its work will help anyone interested in politics better understand the complicated inner workings of Congress.

Avery Anapol

Avery Anapol is a blogger and freelancer for Law Street Media. She holds a BA in journalism and mass communication from the George Washington University. When she’s not writing, Avery enjoys traveling, reading fiction, cooking, and waking up early. Contact Avery at Staff@LawStreetMedia.com.

The post Keeping Score in Washington: What You Need to Know About the CBO appeared first on Law Street.

Welcome to RantCrush Top 5, where we take you through today’s top five controversial stories in the world of law and policy. Who’s ranting and raving right now? Check it out below:

Republican Health Plan Struggles, But Clears First Obstacle

On Monday, Republicans unveiled their new health care plan to replace the Affordable Care Act. Yesterday, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan tried his best to sell the plan, after dissatisfaction was expressed across the political spectrum. But there’s still lots of criticism floating around–various groups representing medical doctors, retired citizens, and insurance companies from both the left and the right have spoken out against it. Some powerful conservative groups and lawmakers have organized to oppose the new plan, claiming that it doesn’t go far enough, and calling it “Obamacare-lite.”

But at least Donald Trump is supportive of the plan, and said, “we’re gonna have a tremendous–I think we’re gonna have a tremendous success.” Overnight, the House Ways and Means Committee became the first to approve it, after 18 hours of debate. The White House wants the plan to pass by April 7, but that might be easier said than done considering recent setbacks.

Despite objections from doctors, nurses, hospitals, the AMA & the AARP, and not knowing the cost, Republicans rushed through #Trumpcare. https://t.co/kc5s2bZeVH

— Keith Boykin (@keithboykin) March 9, 2017

Emma Von Zeipel

Emma Von Zeipel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. She is originally from one of the islands of Stockholm, Sweden. After working for Democratic Voice of Burma in Thailand, she ended up in New York City. She has a BA in journalism from Stockholm University and is passionate about human rights, good books, horses, and European chocolate. Contact Emma at EVonZeipel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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You may have noticed a lot of tweets pitting Obamacare against a new GOP bill recently. That’s because on Monday, Republican lawmakers introduced the American Health Care Act (AHCA), a measure meant to replace former President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare, which helped provide about 20 million Americans with healthcare.

The proposal wouldn’t undo the ACA entirely: provisions allowing young adults to remain on their parents’ health insurance until age 26 and ensuring coverage for people with pre-existing conditions will remain intact. But the bill would eliminate Obamacare’s individual mandate that taxes people who don’t purchase healthcare and allow insurers to charge a 30 percent higher premium for those who let their coverage lapse for more than 63 days. It would also roll back the expansion of Medicaid (which is currently used by more than 70 million Americans) by 2019, restrict Medicaid funding to Planned Parenthood, and postpone the “Cadillac tax”–which fines employers for offering high-cost coverage to their workers–until 2025. Additionally, the measure could allow providers to charge older people five times more for insurance than younger people (under Obama the limit was three times more). For more information, read “What You Need to Know About the New GOP Health Care Plan.”

House Speaker Paul Ryan praised the bill, saying it would “drive down costs, encourage competition, and give every American access to quality, affordable health insurance,” and President Donald Trump has also tweeted out his support of the AHCA. But a handful of Republican senators and several Democrats, who have labeled the measure “Trumpcare,” see it as a downgrade that will increase healthcare costs.

Naturally, opposition toward the bill picked up on Twitter, where users began to draw comparisons between the ACA and the AHCA to famous movies, shows, or characters and their lower-quality knockoffs and sequels. Here are some of the most creative examples.

Obamacare v. GOP replacement pic.twitter.com/C1o8sIXB2I

— Lauren Duca (@laurenduca) March 7, 2017

https://twitter.com/morninggloria/status/838907799040114694

Obamacare vs Trumpcare pic.twitter.com/8VDZEAAtQx

— billy eichner (@billyeichner) March 7, 2017

Obamacare // the GOP replacement pic.twitter.com/sqTC8yUhAj

— Dave Itzkoff (@ditzkoff) March 7, 2017

Obamacare // the GOP replacement pic.twitter.com/MNbNfhC3sI

— Dave Itzkoff (@ditzkoff) March 7, 2017

Obamacare vs. the Obamacare replacement pic.twitter.com/vf6rQRou2l

— Fun_Beard (@Fun_Beard) March 7, 2017

Obamacare vs. Replacement Obamacare pic.twitter.com/hLyW5sX8HU

— Andi Zeisler (@andizeisler) March 7, 2017

Obamacare vs. GOP replacement pic.twitter.com/wQ9gi9hPsG

— Alia (@MizzzAlia) March 7, 2017

Obamacare vs. GOP Replacement pic.twitter.com/Ajs2fhzKnk

— Ira Madison III (@ira) March 7, 2017

obamacare vs gop replacement pic.twitter.com/74C01phBqh

— Ashley Feinberg (@ashleyfeinberg) March 7, 2017

Obamacare VS GOP replacement pic.twitter.com/3G20CtCckf

— shackas (@shackas) March 7, 2017

Obamacare vs GOP replacement pic.twitter.com/NdpwOqS75y

— Philip Lewis (@Phil_Lewis_) March 7, 2017

Reasons why people are against the bill differ, though. A handful of conservatives in Congress, like Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky), want to overhaul Obamacare completely and have nicknamed the AHCA “Obamacare Lite” or “Obamacare 2.0.” All this criticism could mean that the bill won’t get the support it needs to pass.

Victoria Sheridan

Victoria is an editorial intern at Law Street. She is a senior journalism major and French minor at George Washington University. She’s also an editor at GW’s student newspaper, The Hatchet. In her free time, she is either traveling or planning her next trip abroad. Contact Victoria at VSheridan@LawStreetMedia.com.

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Just after midnight, in the early hours of Thursday morning, Senate Republicans approved a budget blueprint measure that is the first step in the arduous journey toward repealing the Affordable Care Act. The measure is a largely procedural move that will pave the way for more formidable legislation to move through Congress later this month. Congress uses budget blueprints as a guiding device for future legislation; they do not require a president’s signature, and do not become law. A House vote on the budget blueprint could come as early as Friday.

While the Obamacare repeal effort is officially underway, Republicans are still split on how to replace the health care law. In a press conference on Wednesday, President-elect Donald Trump said repeal and replace would happen “essentially simultaneously.” 

In a statement, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell called the vote “an important step toward repealing and replacing Obamacare,” adding that it will lead to “legislative tools necessary to actually repeal this failed law while we move ahead with smarter health care policies.” Senate Republicans unanimously voted for the measure, which passed by a vote of 51-48, while Democrats opposed it, deeming it the beginning of the end of health insurance for over 20 million people.

Senator Maria Cantwell (D-WA) said the GOP is “stealing health care from Americans.” Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR), said “health care should not just be for the healthy and wealthy.” And Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, who Trump recently called the “head clown” of the Democrats, said the vote was “irresponsible and rushed.”

For Republicans, the budget blueprint sets the stage to fulfill the party’s six-year effort to repeal President Barack Obama’s chief domestic policy achievement. The more substantial repeal legislation is expected to hit the Senate floor on January 27, though some Senate Republicans suggested that date is a placeholder, and a repeal bill could come at a later date.

The eventual repeal legislation–known as a reconciliation bill–will contain specific language that would repeal parts, if not all, of the ACA. Reconciliation bills are safeguarded from filibusters, and only require a majority vote to pass. Republicans control both chambers of Congress, so unless some Senate Republicans flip, that measure will almost surely pass. According to Trump, who held his first press conference in nearly six months on Wednesday in Manhattan, Republicans will have a replacement plan to offer sooner rather than later.

“It will be repeal and replace,” Trump said. “It will be essentially simultaneously. It will be various segments, you understand, but will most likely be on the same day or the same week, but probably the same day, could be the same hour.”

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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The 115th Congress has been sworn in, and President-elect Donald Trump will be moving into the White House in two weeks. The power shift in Washington, with a Republican majority in both chambers of Congress and a Republican president, is sure to result in a number of changes. Within the first few weeks and months of 2017, one of President Barack Obama’s crowning achievements, the Affordable Care Act, will take on a significantly different form. Read on to find out what Republicans plan on doing to Obamacare, and what their replacement might look like. 

Repeal

It is unclear exactly what the GOP-crafted health law will look like, but one thing is for sure: Republicans are dead-set on undoing at least some of the ACA’s major provisions. The number one target most GOP lawmakers agree on is the mandate that all Americans must have health care, or else face a fine. Leading Republican lawmakers acknowledge there must be some price to pay for healthy people choosing to go uninsured, but again, that penalty has not been fully articulated.

Republicans have been adamant about repealing two other aspects of Obama’s health care law. First, they will likely scale back federal funding for Medicaid, which was vastly expanded under the ACA. Nineteen states–all with Republican governors or legislatures–have rejected the expanded funding. Some Republican-led states have expanded their Medicaid programs however, which could make it a political risk for Congressional Republicans to cut federal funding entirely.

massive increases of ObamaCare will take place this year and Dems are to blame for the mess. It will fall of its own weight – be careful!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 4, 2017

Earlier this week, Senate Republicans inched toward repealing the law, a process that could take at least a few months. They approved a budget blueprint, which will essentially pave a trail for further legislation to pass through, and will provide a shield against a Democratic filibuster. The Senate will likely vote on that measure next week and, if it passes with a majority vote, turn it over to the Republican-led House.

Republicans have promised that their repeal efforts would not take place immediately, so that those who are insured under the ACA would not be caught in a no-man’s land. Some experts say that delaying the effects of the repeal effort, especially with no clear replacement law at the ready, could lead to destabilized insurance markets. Paul Ryan (R-WI), speaker of the House and a vocal Obamacare critic, assured people who are worried they’ll lose coverage in the coming months that in 2017 “we don’t want people to be caught with nothing.”

Replace

“Trumpcare,” as President Barack Obama coined the Republican replacement to his health care law on Wednesday, is vague on its details. Congressional Republicans, and Trump, campaigned on a platform that vociferously opposed Obamacare, and voters who were angry at rising premium costs happily voted for an alternative. But what will that alternative look like? There are disparate visions among Republicans of what changes should or should not happen to Obamacare, and the final product is still being hammered out.

There are parts of Obamacare that could survive the GOP assault, including the option that people can remain on their parents’ insurance plan up until the age of 26. That is a highly popular element of the health care law that will likely remain in any future iteration.

Guaranteed coverage, one of Obamacare’s unprecedented (and most expensive) features, is also likely to remain in the Republicans’ replacement plan, at least in some form. Requiring insurers to offer coverage to customers with pre-existing conditions has led to increased premiums, and while Republicans have noted rising premiums as cause for a repeal, they have not said they will entirely scrap guaranteed coverage. Whatever directions the GOP decides to go in, expect the states to have more power and flexibility in designing their plans.

The ACA & Planned Parenthood bring critical health security to women across the US. To the GOP: Dont defund @PPFA Dont #MakeAmericaSickAgain pic.twitter.com/xip6WENNMm

— Chuck Schumer (@SenSchumer) January 6, 2017

In terms of the new pieces of the Obamacare replacement law, the details are hazy. GOP lawmakers will surely do something about the current marketplaces and government subsidies. Trump has mentioned opening up insurance marketplaces across state lines. Trump’s appointee for health secretary, Tom Price, has laid out a plan for tax credits in lieu of government subsidies, which could benefit middle-class Americans who earn too much to qualify for the subsidies under the current law. But like other parts of the law that will succeed Obamacare, details are scant.

The gears are already turning in the rush to repeal Obamacare, at least vast chunks of it. But Republicans are hardly in unison about what should follow. Many who have been insured under the law–including Trump supporters–have been uneasy with what might happen to them in the coming year. Republicans promise to delay the effective date of the incoming repeal, and Democrats promise to make repeal efforts as strenuous as possible for the GOP. The next few weeks and months will hopefully bring some clarity into the future of health care in America.

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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