Capping off a years-long pursuit of power, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan strengthened his rule on Sunday, as a referendum passed that changes the constitution from a parliamentary system to a presidential system. While supporters claim the new system will stabilize a government that faces growing internal and external threats, detractors say it will effectively give the Middle East yet another authoritarian leader. With the constitutional change, Erdogan could lead the country until 2029.

The referendum passed by a much narrower margin than many observers–including Erdogan–expected: 51.4 percent of the country supported the system change, while 48.6 percent opposed it. The narrow result shows just how divided Turkey is at a time of growing tensions both at home and abroad.

Domestically, the country is coping with the fall-out from last July’s coup attempt. Erdogan’s government has purged at least 100,000 workers from their jobs, and has jailed thousands of others, all accused of being followers of the exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen. Erdogan accuses Gulen, a onetime political ally, of fomenting the coup. Gulen lives in Pennsylvania.

Turkey has also gone from being a potential member of the European Union to being a thorn in its side. As the campaign for the referendum heated up in recent months, Erdogan sent over his ministers to Europe to drum up support among its millions of Turkish citizens who were eligible to vote–Germany alone has about three million Turkish citizens. The Netherlands, Germany, and others barred Turkish officials from campaigning; Erdogan likened their governments to Nazis. The relationship has soured ever since.

In addition to its domestic concerns, Turkey is a key player in the Syrian conflict. It holds small slices of territory in Syria’s northern border with Turkey, and cooperates with the U.S.-led coalition in airstrikes against Islamic State militants. Though differences remain between the U.S. and Turkey’s goals in the region–Turkey considers the Kurdish fighters, a U.S. ally, terrorists–the two remain vital partners in the fight against ISIS.

Sunday’s referendum result concerns those that see Erdogan as being on a mission to tighten his grip on the country’s politics. Since taking the presidential post in 2014, Erdogan has effectively swapped the job titles of prime minister and president. The presidential perch was designed to be ceremonial, and the prime minister–a position he held for ten years following his switch to president–was the position meant to wield power.

Among other sweeping changes, the new presidential system scraps the prime minister position altogether. It also allows a president to serve for up to two terms of five years each, with a possible extension to three terms. The president can directly appoint top public officials, including judges, and also has the authority to intervene in judicial decisions. New presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for November 3 2019.

Some observers saw Erdogan’s campaign as unfair–the main opposition party is calling for a recount. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) derided the tactics of the government.

“The campaign rhetoric was tarnished by some senior officials equating ‘No’ supporters with terrorist sympathizers, and in numerous cases ‘No’ supporters faced police interventions and violent scuffles at their events,” said OSEC in a  statement.

Immediately after the results came in, Erdogan gave a speech to his supporters in Istanbul. “We are enacting the most important governmental reform of our history,” he said. Erdogan also suggested that he would hold a referendum on bringing back the death penalty to Turkey, which would effectively end its bid to become an EU member-state.

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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In his first visit to Turkey as America’s top diplomat, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson zeroed in on the country’s vital role in supporting the fight against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. He largely skirted the more divisive issues, such as Turkey’s concern for the U.S. backing of Kurdish fighters in the region, a potential flashpoint that could endanger the relationship: Turkey views the Kurdish fighters as terrorists. Tillerson did say that “difficult choices” have to be made.

“We look to Turkey as a key partner for stabilization effort in areas once held by ISIS and for ensuring our NGO and UN partners can continue to provide humanitarian relief services inside and outside of Syria,” Tillerson said in a press conference in Ankara, the capital, on Thursday. “We commend Turkey for its efforts to find a peaceful solution to the nearly six-year Syrian conflict.”

The U.S. leans heavily on its NATO ally in the battle against ISIS on two fronts–in Mosul, Iraq and the group’s de facto capital in Raqqa, Syria. For one, U.S. airstrikes in Syria are launched from the Incirlik Air Base, not far from Turkey’s southern border with Syria. But it’s the most potent fighting force on the ground, the Kurds, that could create a wedge in the U.S.-Turkey partnership.

Known as the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the Kurdish militia benefits from generous U.S. support, both financially and militarily. But Turkey sees the YPG as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which it designates a terrorist group. Still, Tillerson pledged there is “no space between Turkey and the United States in our commitment to defeat” ISIS.

This week presented another challenge to the relationship. A day before Tillerson’s visit, Turkish officials alleged that the U.S., in the days following last July’s coup attempt, contacted one of the suspected architects of the plot, Adil Oksuz. The U.S. Embassy in Ankara claims it called Oksuz to alert him that, at the behest of Turkish authorities, his visa had been revoked. Turkey was unconvinced of that explanation. “We are expecting better cooperation,” said Tillerson’s Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu.

In the land of conspiracy theories, the allegation did little to placate Turkey’s fears that the U.S. had a hand in the deadly coup attempt. Furthering Turkey’s suspicions, Fethullah Gulen, the Muslim cleric and former politician that Ankara is convinced orchestrated the coup, lives in Pennsylvania. Turkey has repeatedly called on the U.S. to extradite Gulen, but the U.S. has refused to do so, saying there is not sufficient evidence of his alleged crimes.

Turkey’s relationships with other western allies, like the Netherlands and Germany, have also frayed in recent weeks. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan–whose crackdowns on the press and political dissidents after the July coup has worried leaders around the world–is attempting to expand his powers in a referendum next month.

His campaign has spilled into Europe, where millions of Turks live and are able to vote in the referendum. But the Netherlands, Germany, and others have barred Turkish ministers from traveling to Europe to drum up support for the referendum; Erdogan has likened the European leaders to Nazis. Tillerson left Turkey without a mention, publicly at least, of Erdogan’s escapades in Europe, and his tightening grip at home.

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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Turkey on Tuesday warned it might impose economic sanctions against the Netherlands, as a diplomatic rift between the two countries intensifies. The ongoing spat comes at a time of political uncertainty for both countries: anti-Muslim sentiment is on the rise in the Netherlands, which held an election on Wednesday, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces a referendum vote next month that could greatly expand his powers. Here is what you need to know about the deepening conflict, and what it could mean for the future.

Roots of the Conflict

Last weekend, Erdogan dispatched members of his cabinet to the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium, European countries with high numbers of Turkish migrants, to stir up support for next month’s referendum. A “yes” vote in the referendum would broaden his already considerable governing powers. Turkish ministers planned to fly to Rotterdam to give a speech to Turkish migrants living in the Netherlands, hoping to galvanize support for Erdogan in the weeks before the vote.

But on Saturday, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte blocked Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu from flying to Rotterdam. “This decision is a scandal and unacceptable in every way,” Cavusoglu said. Pro-Turkish protesters swarmed the country’s consulate in Rotterdam soon after, hurling stones and bottles; police were seen beating some protesters with batons. “To all Turks in the Netherlands who agree with Erdogan: Go to Turkey and NEVER come back!!” Geert Wilders, the Dutch far-right candidate whose anti-Muslim rhetoric has influenced Dutch politics, tweeted on Saturday.

Rhetoric Heats Up

On Sunday, after the barring of Cavusoglu, Erdogan, who is accused of jailing dissidents and journalists, responded by comparing the Dutch to Nazis and fascists. “Listen Netherlands, you’ll jump once, you’ll jump twice, but my people will thwart your game,” he said, warning that Turkey would respond in the “harshest ways.” Erdogan added: “They don’t know diplomacy or politics. They are Nazi remnants. They are fascists.”

In retaliation to Cavusoglu’s ban, Turkey blocked access to the Dutch embassy in Ankara and its consulate in Istanbul. On Monday, Turkey officially severed high-level diplomatic relations between the two countries. And on Tuesday, the deputy prime minister suggested that Turkey might impose economic sanctions on the Netherlands in the near future.

Broader Consequences

As Europe deals with a number of consequential elections this year, the last thing it needs is a spat with its neighbor, and aspiring European Union member, Turkey. The conflict has soured quite quickly. Yet deeper, more wide-ranging consequences could follow in the coming months. Germany, Austria, Belgium, and Switzerland have all followed the Netherlands in blocking rallies related to Turkey’s referendum.

Germany might have the most to lose. Turkey recently agreed to a deal with Germany, which has also barred Turkish ministers from giving political speeches, to stop migrants from the Middle East from entering Germany. Turkey could pull out of the deal if the row with the Netherlands and Germany worsens. In fact, on Wednesday, Cavusoglu suggested as much, saying, “we are evaluating the refugee deal.” With an election in September, German Chancellor Angela Merkel can’t afford to lose Turkey’s cooperation in stemming the migrant flow, which has fueled the anti-immigrant message of her opponents.

Meanwhile, Erdogan, whipping up support back home, is posturing himself as being cornered by Europe’s bullying, which could underscore his anti-western and, many observers say, anti-democratic governing style. As he seeks to strengthen his power in next month’s referendum vote, Erdogan’s aggressive actions in Europe could bolster his standing at home, but weaken ties with Europe at a time when cooperation is more vital than ever before.

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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The German parliament passed a resolution on Thursday to recognize the 1915 mass killings of Armenian people as “genocide,” sparking a backlash in Turkey. The motion was put forward by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling coalition together with one opposition party and passed with support from all parties in parliament.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was upset by the resolution and said that this will deeply affect Turkey’s relationship with Germany. He also recalled the Turkish ambassador from Berlin and said that further action in response to the resolution will be discussed later. The three biggest political parties in Turkey have already condemned the German decision, and the Turkish foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, tweeted: “The way to close the dark pages of your own history is not by defaming the histories of other countries with irresponsible and baseless decisions.”

According to the 1948 Convention on Prevention and Punishment of Genocide, genocide is the “intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such.” According to historians, the Ottoman Empire deliberately crashed down on Armenian people and other Christian minorities, starting in April 1915. They estimate that as many as 1.5 million Armenians were killed in the genocide. While Turkey acknowledges that many people died, they claim that the deaths were the result of war and that the numbers are exaggerated.

Learn more: The Armenian Genocide: A Battle For Recognition

Denying that the genocide happened has long been a part of the national consciousness in Turkey, and is so sensitive that it is illegal to even talk about. Even though many large nations–such as France, Austria, Canada, and Russia, recognize the events as such–many still do not. And that is largely for political reasons–when countries have recognized the genocide, Turkey has been quick to withdraw its ambassadors or end military collaboration. This is why it’s a pretty sensitive time for Germany, as it seeks a friendly relationship with Turkey to seal a deal over the immigrant crisis facing the EU.

With the deal, Turkey will take back refugees that make it to Greece illegally. In return, Turkey will get additional aid from the EU, Turkish citizens will be able to travel through Europe more easily, and talks about Turkey joining the EU will be sped up. The goal is to stop the human trafficking that has led to so many deaths on the seas as refugees seek entry into Europe. However, human rights groups and organizations like Doctors Without Borders have criticized the deal, saying that sending people back simply forces refugees to suffer in Turkey while also reducing them to numbers.

Angela Merkel did not participate in the vote, but later said: “There is a lot that binds Germany to Turkey and even if we have a difference of opinion on an individual matter, the breadth of our links, our friendship, our strategic ties, is great.”

More than 40 U.S. states label the Armenian genocide as such, but the nation as a whole does not. Many see the lack of recognition as an attempt to maintain friendly relations with Turkey in order to maintain a strategic ally within the Middle East. President Obama has not referred to it as a genocide while in office, although he did prior to becoming president.

Emma Von Zeipel

Emma Von Zeipel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. She is originally from one of the islands of Stockholm, Sweden. After working for Democratic Voice of Burma in Thailand, she ended up in New York City. She has a BA in journalism from Stockholm University and is passionate about human rights, good books, horses, and European chocolate. Contact Emma at EVonZeipel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is no stranger to inflammatory remarks, and is not shy about offending large swaths of people, even citizens of the country he presides over. On Monday while speaking at an educational foundation in Istanbul, Turkey’s capital, Erdogan called on women to abstain from contraception, and to “multiply [their] descendants.”

“People talk about birth control, about family planning. No Muslim family can understand and accept that!” he said. “As God and as the great prophet said, we will go this way. And in this respect the first duty belongs to mothers.”

Erdogan, who has four children with his wife Emine, has called on Turkish women to bear at least three children, and that “four means abundance.” Turkey is the world’s nineteenth most populous nation with almost 80 million people, according to United Nations estimates.

The Koran, Islam’s holy scripture, does not explicitly condemn contraception. Eight of the nine schools of Islamic law permit the practice. And while Turkey is technically a secular democracy, Erdogan’s party, the AKP, is made up of Islamists, and critics (as well as global partners like the U.S.) fear that he is slowly steering his country in the direction of an Islamic dictatorship.

He’s jailed journalists and former military officers. Most recently, he booted Turkey’s Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, a move that critics saw as an attempt remove a man who he perceived a threat to his power.

Erdogan has also made a habit of offending women. In 2014, at a conference for justice and rights for women, he insisted that men and women are not in fact equal: “You cannot put women and men on an equal footing,” he said. “It is against her nature — because her nature is different, her bodily constitution is different.”

In a statement posted to Twitter, the Platform to Stop Violence Against Women, a women’s rights group, rejected Erdogan’s comments: “You cannot usurp our right to contraception, nor our other rights with your declarations that come out of the Middle Ages. We will protect our rights.”

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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