With France’s consequential election just around the corner–the final round is Sunday–it’s easy to forget another key U.S. ally is set to choose its next leader in the coming days: South Korea.

Taking place just over a month after former President Park Geun-hye’s impeachment, South Korea’s presidential election could have wide-ranging effects on how the U.S.–and its Asian allies–deals with the threat posed by North Korea.

Early voting began on Thursday at 3,510 stations across the country; the official vote takes place next Tuesday, May 9. Moon Jae-in, a 64-year-old former human rights lawyer, is the current front-runner, polling far ahead of his opponents. A center-left member of the Democratic Party of Korea, Moon favors engagement with his northern neighbor and, eventually, reunification.

“The North and South were one people sharing one language and one culture for about 5,000 years,” he told Time Magazine in a recent interview. “Ultimately, we should reunite.”

The son of refugees from North Korea, Moon could add a layer of complication for U.S. policy in the region if elected. For one, he opposed the deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile system, which was recently deployed in a South Korean village. The system is meant to defend against missile launches from the North, but China, an important ally of the South and a vital patron of the North, strongly opposes THAAD.

As the U.S. aims to further isolate North Korea, the likely next leader of South Korea might choose the opposite path. The U.S. House of Representatives just passed a measure to squeeze Kim Jong-un’s regime with tighter sanctions; the Senate is expected to pass the measure as well.

President Donald Trump has pressed China to do more to pressure North Korea to reign in its nuclear weapons program. Analysts predict the North is readying its sixth nuclear test in a decade, which could further increase tensions.

Moon, who narrowly lost to Park in the 2012 election, hews closer to the “sunshine policy” of former President Roh Moo-hyun, whose government he also worked for. That policy called for economic investment with North Korea, as a way to deepen ties between the North and South. Millions of dollars were poured into the North, and critics contend the policy bolstered the North Korean regime’s nuclear program.

Ahn Cheol-soo is Moon’s top competitor. His North Korea policy is at the other end of the spectrum and more in-line with the isolationist approach of the United States. Ahn, who supports the THAAD system, recently said, “If the North is about to launch a nuclear attach, we should first strike the source of attack.”

Ahn and Trump share another similarity: both went to the Wharton business school at University of Pennsylvania.

Despite his softer stance on North Korea, Moon sounds prepared to cooperate with both the U.S. and China. At a campaign event in April, Moon said he will “create a government most feared by North Korea, most trusted by the United States and most reliable for China.”

He also sounds confident that he and Trump will be able to reach common ground. “I believe we will be able to share more ideas, talk better and reach agreements without difficulty,” he said.

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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Prosecutors in Seoul said on Monday that they would pursue an arrest warrant for former South Korean President Park Geun-hye, who was unseated from office earlier this month by the Constitutional Court. The Seoul District Court will examine the prosecutors’ request in a hearing scheduled for Thursday morning. If the request is granted, Park, 65, would be the first president to be jailed since the 1990s, when the former military dictators Chun Doo-hwan and Roh Tae-woo were arrested on charges of sedition and mutiny.

Impeached in December and formally removed from office on March 10, Park is accused of bribery, extortion, and abuse of office. In a statement, the Seoul Central District Prosecutor’s Office said Park “abused the mighty power and position and president to take bribes from companies and infringed upon the freedom of corporate management and leaked important confidential official information.”

Last fall, hundreds of thousands across the country began demanding Park’s ouster, as she was accused of conspiring with her longtime friend Choi Soon-sil to extort millions of dollars from South Korea’s largest business conglomerates, including Samsung, in exchange for political favors. Choi, an unelected, largely secretive presence inside Park’s inner circle of advisers, is in custody, along with the Samsung executive Lee Jae-yong. Both are being investigated on charges of corruption.

Park has publicly apologized for the allegations against her, but has consistently denied any legal wrongdoing. The prosecutors’ office, in its statement on Monday, said “there is a danger of her destroying incriminating evidence if she is not arrested.”

As president, Park was immune from a criminal investigation, but now, as a private citizen, she does not enjoy the same protection. If the judge in Seoul grants the prosectors’ request, Park will be held behind bars for up to 20 days, during which time the prosecutors will continue the investigation. A spokesman for Park’s Liberty Korea Party called the prosecutors’ request for an arrest warrant “regrettable.” The main opposition faction, the Democracy Party, called it “historic.” An early election will take place on May 9.

South Korea is facing a critical time in its young democracy: North Korea is firing off ballistic missile tests every few weeks, and relations with China are declining because of a defense shield the U.S. began deploying to South Korea earlier this month. Beijing views the missile defense system, or THAAD, as a threat to its own missile program. Park, for her part, is steadfast in denying any wrongdoing. “It will take time, but I am sure that the truth will be known,” she said a few days after her ouster from office.

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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In a passing-of-the-torch meeting weeks after the election, President Barack Obama warned then-President-elect Donald Trump of the gravest threat facing America today: North Korea. Not a belligerent China. Not an adventurous Russia. Not terrorism. But North Korea, a tiny, starved nation led by a portly 33-year-old who launches ballistic missiles every now and then. 

A few months after Obama and Trump met, the North Korean threat remains as stark as ever: Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, claims his country will soon have the capacity to strike the U.S. with a nuclear weapon; on Monday, North Korea tested four ballistic missiles simultaneously; and China, North Korea’s longtime security blanket, is wavering in its support. As North Korea continues to pursue nuclear weapons capable of striking the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, a dark cloud is slowly expanding over the Korean Peninsula, and the looming threat of potential conflict grows with each passing day.

Missile Tests

For the past year or so, North Korea has been flaunting its military capabilities for all the world to see. It tested a nuclear missile last January, and again in September. It has unleashed a flurry of medium and intermediate-range missile over the past few months. And on Monday, the North sent four missiles east toward Japan; they fell into the Sea of Japan, three of them dropping within the boundaries of Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called Monday’s test a “new stage of threat.” According to Abe, he spoke with Trump for 25 minutes to discuss a response to the threat. Last week, the North warned a test was on the horizon: “New strategic weapons of our own style will soar into the sky,” read a piece in the North’s state-run newspaper. Monday’s missile launch was a response to the annual joint-exercise between U.S. and South Korean military forces, a show of force that often draws an aggressive response from the North.

America’s Response

On Wednesday, Nikki Haley, the U.S ambassador to the U.N., said Kim Jong-un is “not a rational person.” Speaking after an emergency U.N. meeting on North Korea, Haley hinted the U.S. might be considering a military response to the North’s latest missives. “All the options are on the table,” she said. Sanctions imposed by the international community, while crippling for North Korea’s economy, have not had much success in reigning in its nuclear program.

The U.S. has already responded more forcefully to the North’s threat, deploying its Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) system to South Korea months ahead of schedule. Mounted on the back of a truck, Thaad detects incoming missiles and intercepts them mid-air. While the move might placate South Korea’s and Japan’s fears, it has heightened tensions with China, who sees Thaad as a check on its own missile launches.

China’s Response

China, for decades, has been the linchpin to North Korea’s survival. Beijing’s support for Pyongyang could be wavering, however, as it recently announced a year-long freeze on imports of North Korean coal. But while China traditionally responds to North Korean missile launches with a gentle “don’t do that again,” it has yet to show the appetite for anything stronger. On Wednesday, China issued its sternest warning to date, advising the North to cease its missile and nuclear launches in order to “defuse a looming crisis.”

In exchange, however, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi suggested the U.S. and South Korea could end their joint-exercises. Both sides have balked at that suggestion, citing past failures in trying to engage North Korea diplomatically. What happens next is anyone’s guess–will China retaliate for the Thaad deployment? Will South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. preemptively strike North Korea’s nuclear facilities? What Obama told Trump in that private meeting in January may be slowly shifting from prophesy to a concrete global reality.

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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As a ballistic missile launched skyward in the northern mountains of North Korea on Saturday, President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan were relaxing in Palm Beach, Florida. The two leaders were dining Saturday night at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort when the call came: North Korea launched an intermediate-range missile off its eastern coast; it traveled 310 feet before plunking into the Sea of Japan.

Hours later, at about 10:30 p.m., Trump and Abe delivered a joint-statement on North Korea’s latest provocation. Abe called the missile test “absolutely intolerable.” He added: “North Korea must fully comply with the relevant UN Security Council resolutions,” which implore the insular nation to halt its nuclear weapons program and missile tests, which have been consistently launched over at least the past year.

North Korea poses a challenge for Trump: its leader, Kim Jong-un, has shown a proclivity to provoke, and Trump has a tendency to respond rashly–and loudly–to provocation. But three weeks into his presidency, Trump seems to be adopting a muted tone toward North Korea, and in his remarks on Saturday, he showed that he won’t be easily baited into a conflict.

After Abe spoke, Trump took to the dais, and simply said: “I just want everybody to understand and fully know that the United States of America stands behind Japan, its great ally, 100 percent.” There was no direct mention of North Korea or its missile launch. It is unclear if Trump will respond in some other capacity in the coming days or weeks. But on Sunday, Trump’s senior policy adviser, Stephen Miller, hinted at how the U.S. might counter future North Korean threats.

#BREAKING: North Korea publishes video of yesterday’s missile test pic.twitter.com/0732BlcJ3m

— Amichai Stein (@AmichaiStein1) February 13, 2017

“President Trump is going to go to Congress and ask them to invest in our military so once again we will have unquestioned military strength beyond anything anybody can imagine,” Miller said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” Miller called the joint-statement between Abe and Trump a “show of strength.” But the absence of any mention of South Korea, the most vulnerable target of a missile launched from its northern neighbor, was rare for a U.S. statement following a North Korean missile launch.

“I was glad he issued the statement with the prime minister of Japan, but he ought to do it quickly with South Korea,” Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said on “Face the Nation.” He added: “South Korea is probably more susceptible to North Korea’s virulence than any other country.”

According to the South Korean military and the U.S. Strategic Command, the missile was an intermediate-range Musudan missile. While it was the first direct test of Trump’s North Korean stance during his presidency, he did have a response to a North Korean threat while he was the president-elect. On New Year’s Day, Kim said North Korea was entering the “final stage in preparations” for testing an intercontinental missile, which could reach the U.S. Trump responded on Twitter:

North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S. It won’t happen!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 2, 2017

And while Trump made no mention of South Korea on Saturday, his Defense Secretary James Mattis visited the country in his first overseas trip a few weeks ago. He affirmed the U.S.’s commitment to the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system, which will soon be deployed to South Korea. “I talked to President Trump and he wanted to make a very clear statement about the priority that we place on this alliance between our two nations,” Mattis said.

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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