The town of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine is preparing for evacuation this week as the town has lost electricity and water. After clashes between the Ukrainian army and pro-Russia rebels, at least ten people are dead and dozens have been wounded.

Reports conflict on the exact death toll and more than twenty civilians and soldiers may have died in the past several days. Heavy shelling has decimated the region, with more than 2,300 explosions taking place in a 24-hour period. Both sides have claimed the other has been using Grad rocket systems, an imprecise weapon which disperses multiple rockets across a broad area. This shelling is a blatant violation of the Minsk agreements of 2014, which halted war in the Donbass region (adjacent to Avdiivka), as well as the ceasefire declared earlier this year by Russian separatists.

As temperatures plummet below zero, the citizens of Avdiivka are trapped in homes without any heat supply, unsure if the shelling will begin again during the week. A state of emergency has been declared across the region and unless utilities are restored to the town immediately, the government will evacuate thousands from their homes.

Avdiivka is a somber reminder of the daily struggle for peace in Ukraine, an ongoing battle that many fear will crumble under the Trump administration. If Trump cuts Kiev out of peace negotiations with Russia in order to bolster his own relationship with the Russian establishment, he could undo years of the Ukrainian government’s efforts to unify and stabilize the country. Tenuous connections are being made between the phone call with Trump and Putin the day before the shelling in Avdiivka and a sense of Russian support for escalating violence in Ukraine.

With Trump seemingly positioning himself as friendly to Russia, Putin will likely not feel the same sting that he felt under the Obama Administration, which leveled multiple economic sanctions against Russia in an attempt to dissuade further military action in Ukraine. President Obama also stationed U.S. troops in Poland before leaving office, citing Russian expansionist doctrine as a threat to Polish autonomy.

There have been no indications that the Trump Administration plans to enact sanctions against Russia or to provide military support for the Ukrainian military as it battles against the pro-Russia rebel forces. The White House has not issued a formal statement but instead directed a request for comment toward the State Department, which cited the Minsk agreements and called for a ceasefire. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg appealed to Russia to exert its influence over the rebels and to request a return to the ceasefire. The UN Security Council has also called for the reinstatement of the ceasefire. However, reports that the rebels are setting up artillery positions in the city center of Donetsk and a significant spike in the amount of shelling in Donetsk this week suggest that the Minsk agreements may already be in tatters. If the Trump Administration continues to turn a blind eye to the crisis, Avdiivka may be just the beginning of the darkest chapter of the Ukrainian war.

Jillian Sequeira

Jillian Sequeira was a member of the College of William and Mary Class of 2016, with a double major in Government and Italian. When she’s not blogging, she’s photographing graffiti around the world and worshiping at the altar of Elon Musk and all things Tesla. Contact Jillian at Staff@LawStreetMedia.com

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Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a ceasefire deal for the Syrian government and some rebel factions during a speech in Moscow on Thursday. The deal does not include the Kurdish groups that control swaths of territory in the north, or certain Islamist groups, including the Islamic State (ISIS), which holds patches of land throughout the country. Putin acknowledged that the truce is “fragile,” but signaled peace talks could take place next month in Kazakhstan. The ceasefire is set to take effect Thursday at midnight.

Negotiations for the agreement have been going on for the past few days between Syria, Russia, and Turkey. Two parties that are usually privy to such talks were noticeably excluded: the U.S. and the United Nations. Both have failed to broker sustainable ceasefire agreements over the course of the six-year conflict, so Syria, its foremost ally Russia, and Turkey decided it was time to forge a consensus agreement without them.

Under the deal, fighting will come to a halt in areas controlled by the government, including the recently conquered city of Aleppo, and rebel-held territory in the northern province of Idlib. Russia will guarantee the Syrian army’s compliance, along with Iran and the Lebanese group Hezbollah, while Turkey will guarantee compliance from the rebel groups. All sides expressed optimism that the latest ceasefire will succeed. With rebel-held parts of Aleppo retaken by government forces this month, rebels have less leverage than they had when previous agreements were forged.

Reflecting the tangled web of alliances in Syria, and the muddy definition of “rebel group,” Russia and the Free Syria Army, an umbrella group for the opposition, gave conflicting statements on the rebel participants included in the ceasefire. Russia said seven distinct rebel groups supported the ceasefire, excluding ISIS and other hard-line jihadist groups, but it included Ahrar al-Sham, a group with ties to Al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate. The Free Syria Army said 13 rebel groups would participate in the deal.

A statement from the Syrian Army said the ceasefire agreement followed “the victories and successes that our armed forces accomplished in more than one place,” likely referring to its decisive and swift takeover of Aleppo earlier this month. Furthering the fragility of the agreement, Turkey demanded Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militant group that the U.S. considers a terrorist organization, evacuate Syria.

And although the Obama administration was not invited to take part in the talks that preceded the agreement, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said “after the Donald Trump administration takes office, it will also be able to join these efforts.” The U.S. State Department called the ceasefire a “positive development.” Steffan de Mistura, the UN envoy for Syria, said the agreement “should contribute to inclusive and productive intra-Syrian negotiations to be convened under UN auspices.”

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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Aleppo, the once-vibrant World Heritage city in northwest Syria is in ruins, its residents trapped, its buildings folded over, its streets smoldering, littered with decaying bodies. A ceasefire was brokered by Russia and Turkey on Tuesday, aimed at allowing civilians and rebel fighters to be evacuated to the rebel-held city of Idlib, or to government-held territory in Aleppo. But by Wednesday afternoon, that small glimmer of hope was snuffed out as Turkish officials and activists on the ground reported more airstrikes and shelling.

Civilians who had gathered their belongings on Tuesday, hoping to pack into buses and flee the crumbling city, were stuck, with as many as 50,000 trapped in a small eastern pocket of Aleppo still held by rebel forces. It is unclear who exactly initiated or participated in Wednesday’s attacks. Turkey’s Foreign Minister said the Syrian regime and “some forces” were responsible, possibly alluding to Russia and Iran, two of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s closest allies.

It is unclear how many residents were able to flee Aleppo before it was razed and absorbed by the government. Russia says at least 100,000 people left; the UN put the figure at 37,000. Bana, the seven-year-old girl who began tweeting from Aleppo in September, appears to be still trapped in the city with her mother. On Tuesday, Bana tweeted: “This is my last moment to either live or die.” On Wednesday, Fatemah, Bana’s mother, pleaded with the international community to intervene:

Dear world, there’s intense bombing right now. Why are you silent? Why? Why? Why? Fear is killing me & my kids. – Fatemah #Aleppo

— Bana Alabed (@AlabedBana) December 14, 2016

Syrian forces entered the eastern, rebel-held flank of Aleppo on November 27, and quickly began gobbling up neighborhoods, and indiscriminately bombing apartments, buildings, and markets. The United Nations reports that hundreds of civilians have been killed since the government launched its offensive. When government forces announced their uncontested control of the entire city on Tuesday, a ceasefire was reached, and an evacuation plan, for rebels and civilians alike, was laid out.

Rebel fighters were to be bussed to rebel-held areas, either in Idlib to the west, or in rural, isolated areas throughout the country. Civilians had an option: to join the rebels or to be ushered into government hands. The evacuation process was set to begin before dawn on Wednesday morning, but buses were stalled and airstrikes and shelling eventually continued. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a monitoring group with activists on the ground, said 6,000 civilians had been conscripted by the Syrian government, forced to join the army.

“I hope you can remember us.”

This teacher in Aleppo shares a harrowing “last call” video as government forces take control of the city. pic.twitter.com/2CMzZplvav

— AJ+ (@ajplus) December 13, 2016

Others were simply executed. The UN reported that on Tuesday, Syrian troops and Iraqi militant groups killed 82 civilians, including at least 11 women and 13 children. Speaking to the UN Security Council on Tuesday, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the international body’s “immediate task is to do all we can to stop the carnage.” He added: “Aleppo should represent the end of the quest for military victory, not the start of a broader military campaign in a country already ravaged beyond all recognition by five years of war.”

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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Events in Yemen over the past week have drawn America deeper into the country’s two-year conflict than it has ever been in the past. And now, in an attempt to lessen the potential for greater involvement, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will work to negotiate a 72-hour ceasefire between the warring parties, in order to “create some kind of climate where a political dialogue or a dialogue can begin again,” State Department Deputy Spokesperson Mark Toner said on Friday.

“We need to de-escalate obviously given the events of the past week and that is where the priority is right now,” Toner said.

Since last Saturday, the conflict has been a ping-pong match of missile strikes and diplomatic posturing. A coalition led by Saudi Arabia, the foremost backer of the Yemen government, bombed a funeral service, killing over 140 people. The U.S., which supports the Saudis in the conflict, responded by announcing a review in its commitment to Saudi Arabia’s goals regarding Yemen. Then, Houthi rebels, one of the main groups opposing the Yemen government, fired missiles at U.S. ships, failing to hit any targets. In retaliation, the U.S. launched strikes toward Houthi-held territory in the western tip of the country, destroying three radar installations that helped the rebels coordinate strikes of their own. 

Yemen, like the reality in nearby Syria, is a tangled web of alliances, proxy fighting forces, and lone wolf jihadist groups, all threatening to tear the Gulf nation apart. Two years ago, groups loyal to a former president backed the Houthi tribe and sacked the capital city of Saana, forcing the government to flee. Iran, a sworn enemy to Saudi Arabia, backs those groups, while Saudi Arabia, bolstered by the U.S., backs the exiled government forces. Amid these actors are Islamic State cells and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

Kerry has spoken with a host of Saudi, Emirate, and other Gulf nations’ diplomats and top government officials to coordinate and discuss a possible cessation of hostilities. He also spoke with Boris Johnson, the U.K. Foreign Minister. Kerry is no stranger to ceasefires. He helped broker one with Russia over Syria a few weeks ago, which barely lasted a week before the country devolved into some of the worst violence in its nearly six-year civil war. We’ll have to see if any progress can be made in Yemen.

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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Colombia is in shock after voters rejected by a small margin a peace deal that would have put an end to the 52-year-long conflict between the government and the FARC guerillas. Negotiations had gone on for four years and President Juan Manuel Santos finally signed a peace agreement with FARC leader Timoleon Jimenez last week. The deal was widely expected to pass, and the president had said beforehand that there was no Plan B in case it didn’t.

The result is now, like Britain’s Brexit vote, widespread confusion. The vote was decided by only 0.5 percentage points, with 49.8 percent voting in favor and 50.2 percent voting against. The conflict is the longest running guerilla war in Latin America and has killed more than 260,000 people.

Colombia: 98.45% of referendum votes counted
NO 50.22%
YES 49.75%
Peace deal dead? #Colombia #ColombiaDecide pic.twitter.com/mITgtx3V37

— Derek Gatopoulos (@dgatopoulos) October 2, 2016

For President Santos this is seen as a big setback considering he spent his six years in office trying to accomplish peace with the FARC. The peace deal that he signed last week was a historic step in the right direction, but many people in Colombia think the deal was too lenient on the rebels. Even guerrilla members found guilty of massacres and kidnappings could keep their freedom and be welcomed back into in the society if they were to admit to their crimes in front of a special tribunal. The FARC would also be granted 10 seats in the Colombian congress.

According to the government this deal was the only way to get the rebels to put down their weapons. But the FARC, which started out in 1964 as a group of Marxist fighters wanting more equality and control over their land, has over the years become so involved in drug trafficking, killings, extortion, and kidnappings that people want to see real punishments. But still, almost half of the voters wanted the peace deal in order to finally start healing the country and the result was a shock to many.

Now that Colombian voters rejected the peace deal with FARC, what is next? https://t.co/efrVaoOtep pic.twitter.com/fCBXcd2eh7

— The Atlantic (@TheAtlantic) October 3, 2016

In a televised speech on Sunday, President Santos assured everyone that the ceasefire signed by both sides would remain in effect. “I will listen to those who said ‘no’ and to those who said ‘yes.’ Finding common ground and unity is more important now than ever,” he said.

FARC Leader, Rodrigo Londoño, also said he was tired of fighting. He has spent the last four years negotiating in Cuba. He said in a statement:

The FARC reiterates its disposition to use only words as a weapon to build toward the future. With today’s result, we know that our challenge as a political party is even greater and requires more effort to build a stable and lasting peace.

Among the people happy about the result of the vote was former President Álvaro Uribe who concurred with the idea that the deal was too lenient on the rebels. But for President Santos as well as the FARC rebels who looked forward to hanging up their weapons and rejoining society, this is a defeat. The next step is to take up negotiations again and hopefully find a solution that a majority of Colombians can agree on.

Emma Von Zeipel

Emma Von Zeipel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. She is originally from one of the islands of Stockholm, Sweden. After working for Democratic Voice of Burma in Thailand, she ended up in New York City. She has a BA in journalism from Stockholm University and is passionate about human rights, good books, horses, and European chocolate. Contact Emma at EVonZeipel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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Comments from diplomats on Thursday, as well as developments on the ground in Aleppo, Syria signal an increasing divide between the U.S. and Russia, just one week after a ceasefire brokered by the two powers fell through. Responding to remarks made by State Department spokesman John Kirby on Wednesday, a Russian diplomat and military general echoed suspicions that the U.S. is supporting an “international terrorist alliance.” Meanwhile, Secretary of State John Kerry said the U.S. is “on the verge of suspending the discussion” of cooperation with Russia in Syria.

Recent developments in Aleppo, which is in a bloody tug-of-war between rebels and the government, are bleak as well: in its intensifying campaign to retake rebel-held areas in the city’s eastern sphere, government airstrikes have killed hundreds over the past week, and took out two major hospitals on Wednesday. Access to medical supplies–and food–is all but blocked, and the city has only 30 doctors left.

The relationship between Moscow and Washington is as bad as it has been since Russia joined the fight, in support of President Bashar al-Assad’s Syria, nearly one year ago. On Wednesday, Kirby said if U.S. and Russia stop cooperating in Syria, extremist groups will carry out “attacks against Russian interests, perhaps even Russian cities, and Russia will continue to send troops home in body bags.”

This, two Kremlin representatives said, proved the U.S. supports “terrorists.”

“We can’t assess those statements as anything else but a call, a directive for action,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. A spokesman of Russia’s Defense Ministry said Kirby’s comments were “the most frank confession by the U.S. side so far that the whole ‘opposition’ ostensibly fighting a ‘civil war’ in Syria is a U.S.-controlled international terrorist alliance.”

Because of the dwindling possibility of a cooperative strategy with Russia in combating the Islamic State in Syria, an enemy to all sides, U.S. officials are considering alternative responses to Assad’s barrage in Aleppo. Military options are on the table, a U.S. official privy to the discussions told Reuters.

But even with the frayed relationship between the U.S. and Russia, a spokesman of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said the Kremlin is still open to co-operate with the U.S. He also blamed the U.S. for the moderate rebel groups who failed to comply with the ceasefire by distancing themselves from jihadist groups.

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, has for months been the staging ground for some of the country’s most intense fighting over its five-year civil war. Since the ceasefire brokered by the U.S. and Russia crumbled last week, Aleppo has been getting mowed down by government airstrikes, killing roughly 200 people, in what residents and rescue workers are calling the most severe surge in the city yet. On Tuesday, the neighborhood of Farafra–in the rebel-held eastern half of Aleppo–was captured by government forces, as the government pushes to control the entire city.

Reports from the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights indicate the fighting has spread to the city’s historic quarter, one of the world’s oldest settlements and home to a mosque that dates back to the 8th century. The mosque, Umayyad Mosque, a UNESCO World Heritage site, lost its minaret due to the fighting in 2013. The Syrian Observatory also said government airstrikes killed 11 people in the eastern half  of the city, while rebels shelled the government-held villages in the western half, Nubal and Zahraa.

The past week has seen President Bashar al-Assad’s government use, for the first time, bunker-busting bombs that obliterate buildings and collapse underground bunkers.

“Bunker-busting bombs, more suited to destroying military installations, are now destroying homes, decimating bomb shelters, crippling, maiming, killing dozens, if not hundreds,” said Matthew Rycroft, Britain’s ambassador to the United Nations at an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting on Syria on Sunday.

VIDEO: Drone footage shows the scale of destruction caused by air strikes in Aleppo, #Syria. – @Reuters pic.twitter.com/zOcAdfbMEQ

— Conflict News (@Conflicts) September 27, 2016

Ban Ki-moon, the U.N. Secretary-General, also condemned Assad’s use of bunker-busters: “They are demolishing ordinary people looking for any last refuge of safety,” he said. “International law is clear: The systematic use of indiscriminate weapons in densely populated areas is a war crime.”

During that meeting, which was spearheaded by the U.S. and Britain, council members blasted Assad for committing war crimes. Russia, Syria’s main ally in the fight against the Islamic State and Syrian rebel groups, was lambasted for abetting Assad in his cruelty.

The fight is showing few signs of abating anytime soon. A Syrian military general told the Associated Press that the campaign in Aleppo, which has left thousands of residents trapped in the city with dwindling supplies of food and water, will continue until all “terrorists” are “wiped out.”

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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In what may signal the crumbling of the latest–and perhaps final–ceasefire arrangement in Syria under the Obama administration, the Syrian government on Monday voiced its renewed commitment to the fight. But America’s chief negotiator in the week-long deal, Secretary of State John Kerry, said the end of the ceasefire isn’t up to the Syrian government. Only the two main architects of the fragile agreement, the U.S. and Russia, could officially declare its end.

In effect since last Monday, the ceasefire called for a halting of airstrikes or ground attacks for the following parties: Syrian government forces, the rebel parties opposed to the regime, Russia, and the U.S. Two terrorist groups, the Islamic State and a rebel group previously affiliated with al-Qaeda, were exempt from the ceasefire.

The early parts of last week saw a decrease in reported attacks and casualties, but that began to change by the latter part of the week. Tensions flared anew when on Saturday, a U.S.-led coalition airstrike killed 60 Syrian soldiers by the Russians’ count. The U.S. Central Command said the strikes were aimed at ISIS positions, and amounted to an “intelligence failure.” The U.S. expressed its regret for its unintentional breach of the ceasefire. Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad termed the attack a “flagrant aggression” while implying the U.S. was covertly supporting ISIS, the one common enemy of all parties engaged in the ceasefire.

On Monday, Assad said in a statement that his regime will “continue fulfilling its national duties in fighting terrorism in order to bring back security and stability.” Syria deems all rebel groups terrorists, even the moderate cells the U.S. supports and trains. Assad pointed to those groups as undermining the agreement.

It seems Kerry was unaware of Assad’s claim that the ceasefire had ended. “It would be good if they didn’t talk first to the press but if they talked to the people who are actually negotiating this,” he said. “We just began today to see real movement of humanitarian goods, and let’s see where we are. We’re happy to have a conversation with them.”

Humanitarian relief to Syria’s most besieged cities was a key element of the deal. Assad initially refused to sign off on U.N. aid convoys trying to provide food and other supplies to civilians outside of Damascus, Homs, and Aleppo. He has since authorized aid deliveries, but the U.N. said access to areas that need aid are nearly inaccessible because of fighting, a lack of security, and administrative delays.

The Red Cross did say that it was able to deliver food, water, and hygiene supplies for up to 84,000 people in Talbiseh in Homs province. Citizens in Aleppo, caught in between the rebel-held east and the regime-held west, have yet to receive aid. A U.N. aid convoy is caught in a buffer zone near the Turkey-Syria border, just north of Aleppo, where as many as 250,000 citizens wait for food and other supplies.

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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There may be fewer casualties as a result of the pause in fighting in Syria this week, but there are also starving men, women, and children who continue to suffer because of Bashar al-Assad, the president of the combusting nation. In a briefing with reporters in Geneva on Thursday, the U.N. mediator for Syria said the Assad government has failed to authorize letters that aid convoys need to pass through checkpoints. As a result, the vital aid millions of Syrians hoped to receive during the week-long ceasefire has yet to arrive.

“It’s particularly regrettable because we are losing time,” Staffan de Mistura, the mediator, said. Beginning Monday, the ceasefire has largely held. Jointly implemented by the United States and Russia, the intention is to test whether fighting can remain paused for a week.

If it can, the United States, which opposes Assad’s government, and Russia, Assad’s ally, will begin cooperating in the fight against an enemy shared by all sides, including the rebel groups fighting Assad’s regime: the Islamic State. The ceasefire agreement does not include ISIS or other terrorist groups, such as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, formerly known as the Nusra Front.

But the cessation of hostilities agreement was also intended to crack open a window through which U.N. trucks could pass through, bringing aid to the most devastated pockets in Syria–including areas near Damascus, Homs, and Aleppo. That part of the ceasefire has been a failure, and it’s unclear if a joint U.S.-Russia campaign hinges on the humanitarian relief portion of the deal. Assad is in charge of authorizing the letters that aid groups need to proceed.

“Can well-fed, grown men please stop putting political, bureaucratic, and procedural roadblocks for brave humanitarian workers that are willing and able to go to serve women, children, wounded civilians in besieged areas?” said Jan Egeland, the U.N. special adviser on humanitarian affairs.

And while combat has halted in much of the country, casualties were still recorded since the arrangement went into effect. On Thursday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported airstrikes in ISIS-held territory in an eastern province. At least seven civilians were killed, and 30 more were injured. Of the four buildings that were hit with the strikes, one was a school, the group said.

A day earlier, Russia said it killed 250 ISIS fighters near the desert city of Palmyra.

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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