Barcelona wants independence. The parliament of Catalonia, the region in which Barcelona lies, voted to secede from the Spanish government by 2017. But this may or may not happen. Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, has already publicly denounced the move and has plans to fight it. The region of Catalonia, especially Barcelona, is a prime destination for tourists visiting Spain. Although the news might come as a shock to outsiders, the seed of independence has been growing in the region for years. But why? And what are its chances of success?

Recent Events

On November 9, Catalans approved a plan to eventually withdraw from Spain. The two pro-succession parties won a majority of legislative seats in the Catalan parliament in a landmark win back in September, which paved the way for the recent parliament vote. The “Together for Yes” alliance won 62 seats in the 135 member parliament. In addition to the Together for Yes alliance, the pro-independence Popular Unity Candidacy Party (CUP) won another 10 seats, adding up to a majority. The local Catalan government is led by President Artur Mas of the Democratic Convergence for Catalonia Party, which is part of the alliance.

However, there is a slight caveat. A majority of seats doesn’t necessarily equate a majority of the popular vote. An odd Spanish election law grants a greater percentage of seats to rural areas with fewer voters. In other words, the two parties received just 48 percent of the vote, but a majority of the seats. Catalans who live in rural areas tend to favor separatism more than those in urban areas, but the vote gave more voice to rural Catalans. The leading candidate of the anti-independence Citizens Party, Ines Arrimadas, responded, “[Artur Mas] said the majority of Catalans were with him. Today the majority of Catalans turned their back on him and the only thing he must do is resign.”

“Together for Yes” and the CUP both favor separatism; however, they aren’t always in tune. For example, the CUP initially claimed it wouldn’t approve a succession plan unless the two parties cumulatively received more than 50 percent of the vote. The CUP also favor immediate withdrawal, in contrast to the current 18-month succession plan supported by the Together for Yes Parties. Back in September, the CUP’s leading parliamentary candidate, Antonio Banos, claimed that the CUP would not back Mas for president. However, differences were put aside (at least temporarily) to approve the current plan.

Members Approve A Withdrawal Plan

The plan for withdrawal was approved by the regional parliament of Catalonia with a vote of 72 to 63. But after the vote, Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy immediately claimed he would appeal the decision to the Constitutional Court and would join forces with the main opposition leader fighting against the cause. However, the plan instructs the regional government to not follow a contradicting court decision, calling for Catalonia to begin drafting a constitution within 30 days. The new constitution is to be voted on in a referendum in the future and the plan instructs the government to implement a new tax office and social security administration. Anti-secessionist branches of the Catalan parliament initially tried to block the vote, but the Constitutional Court ruled in favor of the vote a week before. Although the court supported the vote, it is still expected to swiftly deem the plan illegal.

Leadership

Artur Mas’ third term is far from guaranteed. Most likely, the Catalan parliament will begin a debate over whether Mas should continue his reign as head of the region’s government. Mas only retains 62 of the required 68 votes needed to stay in his position. Obviously, the anti-independence parties are against him, as is the CUP. Mas has a history of conservative austerity policies. Either way, the regional parliament must form a government by January 9 or call for new elections.

The move toward Catalan separation will be a hot topic in Spain’s upcoming national election. Rajoy’s response to the issue may be a determining factor in whether his party, the People’s Party, will remain in power.

A Brief History of Catalonia

The Catalan people are extremely proud of their unique culture and identity. This is true for those that want to be an independent nation and for those that identify as Spaniards as well. Catalonia borders the Mediterranean Sea in the northeast of Spain and is separated from southern France by the Pyrenean mountains. Barcelona serves as the region’s capital.

Catalonia became a part of Spain when King Ferdinand of Aragon married Queen Isabella of Castille in the 15th century. Although Spanish culture seemed to be taking over the region, a resurgence of the Catalan identity emerged in the 19th century. This period saw the beginning of Catalonia’s campaign for political autonomy and at times, separatism. The movement was rewarded when Spain became a republic in 1931 and gave Catalonia its much-desired autonomy. Shortly afterward, Barcelona fell to General and dictator Francisco Franco, as did its autonomy. Franco heavily restricted the Catalan government, culture, and language.

The death of Franco in 1975 restored many freedoms to Catalonia, even though the bad blood has never quite been forgotten. Today, Catalonia has a “Generalitat” made up of its parliament and executive. The Catalan language is publicly used in education, government, and the media. Almost all Catalans are bilingual, speaking Spanish in addition to Catalan. As a region, Catalonia excels in manufacturing and technology. While it previously focused on textile production, its economy now centers on chemicals, food processing, and metalworking.

Why does Catalonia want independence?

Long story short, the desire for independence comes down to three basic elements: politics, economics, and nationalism.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s conservative People’s Party is the fourth largest in Catalonia and strongly opposes the Catalan independence movement. Artur Mas is the leader of the Convergència Democràtica de Catalunya (CDC). The CDC, along with the left wing Equerra Republicana de Catalunya Party, the conservative Christian Democrates de Catalunya Party, and the social-democratic Moviment d’Esquerres Party make up the Together for Yes coalition. Although the political leanings of these four groups vary widely, they all want Catalan independence.

Catalonia is widely considered the industrial hub of Spain. It also brings in a large amount of money from its tourism industry. All in all, it produces 18.8 percent of Spain’s economic output. Many natives feel that Catalonia gives more to Madrid in taxes than it receives in government investment. Spain’s economic crisis only exacerbated these sentiments. Lastly, Catalonia pride needs to be taken into account. Catalans are immensely proud of their traditions and culture including food, language, and football.

An Informal Vote

In November 2014, an unofficial vote took place in Catalonia asking if the region should be independent. Over two million people voted out of approximately 5.4 million eligible voters. Over 80 percent of the voters backed an official referendum on Catalan independence. The vote occurred despite strong opposition from the Spanish government.

On the ballot, there were two questions. First, if Catalonia should be a state and second, if that state should be independent. In total, 2,236,606 Catalan citizens took part in the vote. A little over 10 percent voted yes for the first question and no to the second. Approximately 4.5 percent voted no to both questions.

Spanish Justice Minister Rafael Catala declared the vote to be a “sham” and stated, “The government considers this to be a day of political propaganda organized by pro-independence forces and devoid of any kind of democratic validity.”

However, the unofficial vote was an important factor leading to the official vote on independence. It proved the strength and numbers behind the movement.

Response

The Catalan independence movement was officially halted by Spain’s Constitutional Court shortly after the regional government’s vote as the court announced it would hear the Spanish government’s appeal. This is an official suspension pending the court’s ruling.

The government appeal was swift. Prime Minister Rajoy proclaimed, “This is an appeal against a resolution that aims to break up the unity of Spain.” He said, “this is about defending a whole country.” Spain’s economic crisis has resulted in the unemployment of one in five Spaniards. A major fear is that the loss of Catalonia will disrupt the country’s recovery.

The court’s ruling stated, “This is a warning to [Catalan leaders] that if they fail to comply with the suspension, they may commit disobedience.” However, as mentioned above, the Catalan government does not plan to adhere to the Constitutional Court’s ruling.

European leaders also warn that independence could result in an ejection from the European Union and the economic and security benefits that membership has to offer. However, leaders of the independence movement believe there may be ways to side-step such an ejection.

Tensions between Catalonia and Spain are increasing considerably and will likely continue as the dispute continues. Rajoy did not invite Mas to his meeting with Spanish political leaders concerning jihadist terrorism, although Catalonia has a relatively high level of jihadist activity relative to the rest of Spain.

Conclusion

As Catalonia’s attempt to secede from Spain mounts much remains to be seen. How will the Spanish Constitutional Court rule? How will the ruling realistically affect the endurance of the movement? The upcoming national election will be extremely telling in regards to the movement’s future. It will be a hot topic on candidates’ platforms and the country’s reaction as a whole will be insightful.

Another question to keep in mind is will the anti-independence Catalan citizens make a stand? There are many people convinced that the independence-seeking citizens in Catalonia may not even constitute a majority. Regardless, the world is watching.

Resources

BBC: Catalonia Profile

BBC: Catalonia Vote

CBS: Catalonia Makes it Official

CBS: Pro-secession Parties in Catalonia Win Landmark Vote

Euro News: Spain

The Irish Times: Standoff Puts Catalonia’s Independence Plans in Jeopardy

The Telegraph: Why does Catalonia Want Independence from Spain?

The Local: Catalonia Elections

Jessica McLaughlin

Jessica McLaughlin is a graduate of the University of Maryland with a degree in English Literature and Spanish. She works in the publishing industry and recently moved back to the DC area after living in NYC. Contact Jessica at staff@LawStreetMedia.com.

The post Independence for Catalonia: Will it Become a Reality? appeared first on Law Street.

At the end of September, the autonomous community of Catalonia, Spain held local elections for the regional legislature. The election was called for in January by Regional President Artur Mas to serve as a public referendum for Catalan independence. If pro-independence candidates received enough support, that would constitute a mandate to pursue formal independence from Spain–and they did. The two parties supporting independence received a majority of seats in the local election, validating Catalan voters’ desire for independence. But that election was municipal, and it remains unlikely that parties supporting independence will get a majority when the national elections come in November. Also, any attempt to make Catalonia an independent state is still prohibited under the Spanish Constitution. So, what does the recent vote mean for the potential for an independent Catalonia and why do they want to break away in the first place? Read on to learn about the background behind the movement and its prospects in the future.

A Brief History of Catalonia (1714-1975)

On September 11, 1714, the Catalan capital of Barcelona fell to King Philip V of Spain. In the aftermath, Spain imposed its own laws on the conquered territory, replacing the historical laws and government of Catalonia. Many believe this was an early attempt to replace the Catalan language with Spanish. Future Spanish governments would eventually ban the use of Catalan in schools, newspapers, film, and eventually (under Franco) everywhere. People caught speaking Catalan faced stiff penalties including imprisonment, fines, and beating. In the 1960s, a policy of encouraged migration from the rest of Spain was enacted by the Franco regime.

Reading books in Catalan and speaking the language in public eventually became a form of civil disobedience. September 11 became a day on which Catalans gathered to recognize their own historical heritage and further their desire for autonomy. With their own language, a history dating back over 1,000 years, and more than 7.5 million residents current residents, Catalan have a legitimate claim to independence.

The Rise of Separatist Rhetoric in Catalonia

In 1978, three years after the death of Francisco Franco–the country’s dictator from 1939 to 1975–Spain adopted a new constitution that granted some autonomy to various communities across the country, including Catalonia. However, the constitution also solidified the indivisibility of Spain, making any attempt at breaking away from the Spanish nation illegal. In fact, the constitution explicitly entrusts the military with the responsibility to keep the country whole. The post-Franco period was characterized by a swift and seamless transition to democracy, as well as Spain’s quick entry into NATO and the European Union. The transition also led to the devolution of power, giving more power to individual regions within Spain, yet Catalans remained dissatisfied with their lack of formal control.

The Spanish constitution divided the nation into 17 autonomous communities, several of which had historical and cultural legitimacy–like Basque Country and Catalonia–while others were artificially created, like Madrid. These communities form a somewhat loose confederation centered around Madrid. The Catalan people have a longstanding dissatisfaction with the current autonomous community model largely based upon the financial and historical realities of the Catalonia region.

Separatist parties in Catalonia have won a lot of support in local elections, culminating thus far in the September 2015 election, which witnessed major gains by the Junts pel Si (Together for Yes) coalition. At present, groups in favor of secession from Spain have an outright majority in the Catalan Regional Assembly. Catalan President Artur Mas has spent the last several years organizing town-by-town, non-binding referendums on Catalonia’s independence. On September 29, Mas was summoned by the Catalan high court regarding a 2014 referendum, accusing him of abuse of power, embezzlement, and disobedience. The Catalan regional government denounced the charges, claiming that they are politically motivated.

Although the 2014 referendum was non-binding, officials reported that 80 percent of voters were in favor of Catalan independence from Spain. However, the turnout for the referendum was only about 40 percent, and the  Spanish government considered the vote illegal according to the constitution.

Arguments for Catalan Independence

Catalonia’s apparent desire for independence encapsulates much more than a cultural and linguistic heritage. Historically, Catalonia has been a prosperous region for Spain, launching its own industrial revolution in the 19th century while the rest of Spain attempted to maintain an agrarian economy based off of large landholders. Catalonia demanded public money for infrastructure that would allow for its modern, industrial economy. In response, the Spanish landholding elite viewed the Catalans as leeches on their economy. Today, the consequences of social and economic disagreement have led to many anti-Catalan stereotypes. Many conservative Spaniards still view Catalonia as a region that receives and demands too much public money.

Statistically speaking, Catalonia contributes approximately 20 percent of Spain’s GDP, making it the most productive region in Spain. Catalans argue that the Spanish government takes more in taxes than it gives back in public funds. This sentiment is generally pretty inaccurate. When compared to other prosperous regions across Europe (such as Bavaria, Germany and Paris, France), Catalonia’s fiscal deficit is significantly higher than those similar regions. Catalonia remains one of the highest taxed regions in all of Europe.

When the global recession hit in 2008, these financial deficits were brought into the forum of public discourse, with Catalans believing they were paying too much to cover the rest of Spain. While the regional budget in Catalonia is €22.5 billion for 2015, a Reuters article from 2012 found that Catalonia contributed at least €12 billion to the rest of Spain in taxes. Over the last 12 years, Catalonia’s share of the national budget has fallen from 16 percent in 2003 to 9.5 in 2015. Building on an existing desire for political and cultural autonomy, recent economic trends have bolstered the movement for independence.

The Political Climate in Spain

Catalan independence is a particularly controversial subject among Spaniards. Soccer matches between FC Barcelona and Real Madrid have become open forums for either anti-Spain or anti-Catalonia sentiment, depending on who’s hosting.

Historically, two major parties have controlled the political sphere in Spain. The Socialist party and Popular Party (PP) have traditionally traded control of the government back and forth since 1978. Spain has had very little experience with compromise, as Franco maintained unilateral control before his death. Coalitions are rarely formed and winning parties often feel a mandate to govern–even without an absolute majority. Given the May 2015 elections, which led to the rise of the Podemos and Ciudadanos parties at the local level, many Spaniards believe a new era of compromise politics is coming. However, that remains to be seen as national elections won’t be held until November.

In the meantime, the inflammatory rhetoric of Spain’s historically diametric political system will continue to put a strain on both Madrid and Catalonia as tension over independence mounts.

Influences of the 2014 Scotland Referendum

The referendum for Scottish independence, which was held at the end of 2014, did not go unnoticed in Catalonia. While 55 percent of Scots rejected independence from Great Britain, Catalans came away inspired. Many people in Catalonia want Spain to offer them the option to vote, as the UK did for Scotland. The Catalans say they simply want the right to the same self-determination that the Scots received.

.@Zerohedge explains the difference, until now, between #Scotland & #Catalonia http://t.co/BZV4CiuUua #democracy pic.twitter.com/fAEkVRiLuw

— This is Catalonia (@ThIsCatalonia) September 22, 2014

Leading up to the 2014 referendum, there was a growing percentage of Scots in favor of secession. However, in polls conducted shortly before the election that number was only around 40 percent. In Catalonia, recent polls suggest that an estimated 60 percent would vote in favor of secession.

The Scottish campaign was never as strong as the Catalan campaign is now. Leading up to the referendum, most Scots were divided over whether separation from the UK would be beneficial or harmful. Additionally despite a strong sense of national identity in Scotland, even the population that defined itself as purely Scottish was not overwhelmingly in its support of independence.

Most Catalans believe their state would be better off as an independent nation than it currently is. Those who identify as purely Catalan are overwhelmingly in favor of secession.

What Comes Next?

Although national elections are slated for November, it remains to be seen whether the new parties will able to experience success on a national level. However, it seems unlikely that any third-party group will be able to win an outright majority. Spain appears headed for its first confrontation that requires meaningful compromise in domestic politics. In the meantime, independence advocates in Catalonia will likely continue pushing for independence and changes to the Spanish constitution in order to allow for legal referendums.

It’s unclear what an independent Catalonia would do for Spain or the European Union financially. What does seem clear is that if Catalonia achieves independence, it could lead to similar movements in other regions of Spain such as Galicia and Basque, and possibly the dissolution of Spain as we know it.

Conclusion

Catalan separatists have scored a major victory by winning an outright majority in their regional assembly. Non-binding referendums have been held and there appears to be a significant interest in the Catalan people to form their own country within the EU. However, the separatist movements face staunch resistance from the rest of Spain and the Spanish Constitution. The inflammatory nature of rhetoric on both sides and Spain’s own lack of experience with internal compromise will likely pose a problem for the country. Spain will face mounting tensions up until the national elections in November. The results of those elections could determine not only the fate of Spain in the coming years but also the very union upon which the nation is built.

Resources

Endboard Productions: Spanish Secret Conflict

BBC: Spanish Elections: Podemos and Ciudadanos make gains

BBC: Catalan Election: Looming Independence or Little Change in Spain?

BBC: Catalonia’s Push of independence from Spain

BBC: Catalan Independence: Mas Called to Court over 2014 Referendum

The Guardian: Scotland Independence Referendum: The View from Catalonia

EurActiv: Local Elections Send Shockwaves through Spain’s Political Establishment

New York Times: Vote Fails to Settle Dispute on Secession by Catalonia

Montserrat Guibernau: National Identity, Devolution, and Secession in Canada, Britain, and Spain

Angela K. Bourne: Europeanization and Secession: The Cases of Catalonia and Scotland

Seth Jolly: Voting for Nation or State: Determinants of Independence Support in Scotland and Catalonia

Kieran McConaghy: Scotland and Separatism: Reverberations of the Scottish Independence Referendum on Separatist Politics

Samuel Whitesell

Samuel Whitesell is a graduate of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill having studied History and Peace, War, and Defense. His interests cover international policy, diplomacy, and politics, along with some entertainment/sports. He also writes fiction on the side. Contact Samuel at Staff@LawStreetMedia.com.

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