Many alarms have sounded over the last half century with regard to expanding population and potential consequences to planetary and human health. Recently, some have argued for the converse: population is actually on the verge of a decline, and this is in fact the true threat to our well being. So what is actually happening, what are the dangers, and what do we do about it?

In Outgrowing the Earth, Lester R. Brown argues that the problem is a combination of expanding populations, increasing demands, and decreasing agricultural productivity. In what he calls “The Japan Syndrome,” industrializing countries experience an increase in grain consumption, especially via indirect means such as meat, while simultaneously the land that can produce the grain is converted into industrial and residential space, thereby limiting the amount of grain the nation can produce.

An additional point herein, Brown argues, is that as average incomes rise, so does the overall desire to consume meat, the production of which is more grain and water intensive; there are economic and social identity factors tied into natural resource use. As a result, self sufficiency is lost as the country becomes heavily dependent on imports. Furthermore, globally pervasive damage to cropland quality by way of issues such as desertification, falling water tables, and rising temperatures exponentially contribute to the declining productivity of agricultural lands.

Desertification of previously arable land, courtesy of Bert van Dijk via Flickr

Brown proposes some solutions to maintain farming productivity, such as increased use of soybeans. This crop is nitrogen fixing, and therefore would be effectively paired with the nitrogen-hungry corn in a biennial rotation. This would result in sustained high yields without substantially depleting the nutrients of the soil. He also suggests a method of farming that does not involve tilling, which would decrease erosion. Some actions must be taken, Brown declares, as he is convinced that increasing population and development will result in “food insecurity [that] may soon eclipse terrorism as the overriding concern of national governments.”

Brown’s analysis focuses on the threats of population increase, with regard to food and water security. On the flip side, in The Empty Cradle, Philip Longman addresses threats of population decrease, particularly with regard to economics and capitalism. He feels that these things are fueled by ever increasing populations. A diminishing worker base would require “pushing more people into the workforce and getting more out of them everyday” in a system reminiscent of serfdom. He goes on to argue that entrepreneurship and innovation depend on the presence of many young people. Rather, partly as a result of the Baby Boom, the general population is aging and older people outnumber the young, straining the financial system due to Social Security and Medicare needs.

So who is correct? Brown paints a picture in which humanity is headed to destruction because it will grow too large to sustain itself, while Longman feels that it will fizzle out and collapse. In reality, some countries are experiencing declining populations, while others are rising. The trend may be nearing peak, to be followed by a general decline, but many of the problems in Longman’s assessment arise due to the spike resulting from aging Baby Boomers; once their demands as elders drop off, the situation might stabilize.

One point on which Brown and Longman agree is that one of the primary problems with population and access to natural resources is not necessarily shortage, but maldistribution. There are geographic regions and social classes that are well supplied, while, particularly due to political and social injustices, others decline into famine. The latter rightfully receives extensive media coverage, but consequently our perceptions as to the situation are skewed. Similarly, population geographies are not evenly distributed; more and more people are moving into the cities.

China’s population geographies (darker colors are more densely populated areas), courtesy of TastyCakes via Wikipedia

Looking at a map of the United States or China, one will see the populations very densely concentrated at the coasts, while land at the center remains sparsely populated. Whether populations in general are increasing or decreasing, urban populations are on the rise and sustaining them is a challenge.

The Fall 2013 issue of the NYU Alumni Magazine offered some theories regarding innovations in urbanization. The author of the headline article, “Earth Goes Urban,” views these dynamics not as an alarmist’s theme, but as “…a moment of enormous promise, an opportunity to actually spread the blessings of modernity while ushering in an era of sustainable, smart growth.” The author, Jennifer Bleyer, spoke to Neil Kleinman of the NYU Wagner public policy school, who discussed building innovation into the infrastructure. That is to say, rather than do things as they’ve always been done and face the consequences of change, accommodate for the inevitability of change so that it can be absorbed. This idea applies broadly to Longman’s concerns as well; he is afraid that the economic infrastructure, which is predicated on increasing populations, will suffer. Instead, we can make adjustments so that shifting population dynamics will still interact harmoniously with our financial and social needs.

One of the ways in which innovation can be included in infrastructure, Bleyer details, is with carefully calculated sprawl. Sprawl is one of the causes of Brown’s Japan Syndrome, consuming productive land with pavement and construction, while damaging ecosystems and reducing the health of the country. Shlomo Angel, a professor at NYU Wagner, explains that since growth is inevitable, we should prepare for it instead of trying to contain cities or let them grow haphazardly. By planning in advance where and in what manner a city will grow, we can reduce the negative impacts addressed by Brown, while producing a healthy and thriving urban center.

The Innovative Designs of Dubai, courtesy of Eugene Kaspersky via Flickr

It does not matter whether human population is increasing or decreasing; as long as we plan responsibly, we can answer either threat. Bleyer got it right when she called the search for answers an opportunity; it is not just about trying to save ourselves and reduce our impact, but by way of this quest we can actually thrive.

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Franklin R. Halprin (@FHalprin) holds an MA in History & Environmental Politics from Rutgers University where he studied human-environmental relationships and settlement patterns in the nineteenth century Southwest. His research focuses on the influences of social and cultural factors on the development of environmental policy. Contact Frank at staff@LawStreetMedia.com.

Featured image courtesy of [Moyan Brenn via Flickr]

Franklin R. Halprin

Franklin R. Halprin holds an MA in History & Environmental Politics from Rutgers University where he studied human-environmental relationships and settlement patterns in the nineteenth century Southwest. His research focuses on the influences of social and cultural factors on the development of environmental policy. Contact Frank at staff@LawStreetMedia.com.

The post Urban Expansion and Population Pressures Strain Natural Resources appeared first on Law Street.

Julian Castro has long been promoted as one of the rising celebrities of the Democratic party. Formerly the Mayor of San Antonio, now the Secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, his name has definitely been floated by those who are familiar with the who’s who of the Democratic party, but hasn’t quite hit the national stage yet. It leads to a lot of questions: who is Julian Castro? How did he end up leading the Department of Housing and Urban Development? And what is that department doing under his leadership?

How did Castro become HUD secretary?

On Friday May 23, 2014, President Obama nominated Mayor of San Antonio Julián Castro to replace Shaun Donovan as secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Donovan, who had held the post since January 2009, became Secretary of the Office of Management and Budget, as Sylvia Matthew Burnwell moved on to head the Department of Health and Human Services, a position from which Secretary Kathleen Sebelius had recently resigned following the botched roll-out of HealthCare.gov. Julián Castro, 39, who had served three terms as Mayor of San Antonio,  faced the daunting Senate confirmation process and passed. Castro is the second former Mayor of San Antonio to direct HUD, after Henry Cisneros who was appointed by Bill Clinton in 1993.

Catro’s Qualifications

Since declining President Obama’s offer to lead the Department of Transportation in 2012, the top HUD job became a prime opportunity for Castro to gain national-policy experience. And as a Latino on the national stage, Castro could potentially appeal to a growing Hispanic voting base, shoring up the Latino vote for Democrats in future elections. “Having his understanding of the needs of the Hispanic community—having a cultural affinity about that—will lend quite a bit of depth to his policy and understanding of the role,” said Javier Palomarez, CEO of the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.

Indeed HUD plays an increasingly vital role for underrepresented populations, as Latinos and the black community continue to bear the brunt of inequitable urban ‘revitalization’ across America. “We are in a century of cities,” Mayor Castro explained on Friday May 23, following the announcement of his nomination. “America’s cities are growing again and housing is at the top of the agenda.” He vowed to “do housing right,” implying a change from previous HUD policies, which primarily entailed large grants to cities spawning private investment and exorbitant costs of living without protections for the poor.

Castro’s track record is good, but not without blemishes. One instance of ‘revitalization’ in San Antonio under the Castro administration took place in the city’s historically impoverished Eastside neighborhood, once the heart of the city’s black community. In 2012 Castro successfully wrangled a $30 million HUD grant with which he demolished the Wheatly Courts Public Housing Project, and redeveloped the area for moderate-income families and market-rate households. With renovation costs exceeding $1 million, the program didn’t adhere to the affordability requirements. In January 2014, President Obama subsequently selected San Antonio’s Eastside as one of his first five anti-poverty “Promise Zones.”

Similarly, through city fee wavers and tax abatements, Castro revitalized San Antonio’s downtown district, drawing 11.5 million visitors and generating $3.1 billion annually. Since 2010, developers have completed or are building 2,700 housing units within five square miles in the downtown area, though few low-income families could afford such prime real estate and have been subsequently pushed to periphery of the city center. Indeed, San Antonio ranks forty-second in City Lab’s report of the most gentrified cities in America, and seven percent of San Antonio’s low-price tracts have been gentrified over the last year.

What were the concerns over Castro’s nomination?

Aside from Castro’s history of questionable urban policy, he lacked actual executive leadership experience. Unlike the strong-mayor governments of Chicago or New York, San Antonio’s is a council-manager system: a council is elected to serve as legislative branch and it appoints a manager to serve as the executive who has the authority to execute laws and the administration of the city government. The Mayoralty is merely a ceremonial post, a figurehead, and has no real power over the council. Castro was elected to city council in 2001 at the age of 26–the youngest in history–serving two consecutive terms. During his tenure on the city council, he successfully curbed urban sprawl by defeating plans for a PGA-approved golf coarse and suburban development outside the city in 2005; he has no executive experience in the city government, though, which could be problematic.

Castro did a “fantastic job” revitalizing San Antonio by “planning thousands of housing units downtown, attracting hundreds of millions of dollars of investment,” President Obama reasoned during his announcement of Castro’s appointment. In reality, though, Castro’s mayoral tenure was less than laudable, specifically pertaining to the urban minorities whom he supposedly seeks to help. In 2008, congress approved an $8.6 million HUD grant to San Antonio as part of the National Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) as a means to ameliorate the escalating rate of foreclosures at the height of the 2008 financial crisis. With the grant, the program stipulated, cities must buy, refurbish, and resell homes left vacant after eviction; a 2012 HUD Inspector General report concluded, however, that between 2009 and 2011, $1.1 million was allocated to houses that were then sold at market-rate and not reserved for low-income families as the HUD program demanded. It is fair to say that the HUD grant package was awarded before Castro came to office, but the infections to the program nonetheless took place under his leadership.

So, how has the HUD fared under Castro?

So far, so good, but given that Castro has only been in the job a few months, there’s still a lot that needs to happen before anything resembling a final judgment can be made. However, Castro and his administration have absolutely had notable success–for example, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) is no longer in debt after the severe problems it experienced during the 2008 financial crisis. Although that won’t automatically lower loans for people seeking them from the FHA, it’s certainly a step in the right direction. Overhauling struggling institutions like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have also taken top priority for Castro. Overall, it seems like he’s finding his place at HUD.

Conclusion

Calling Castro a rising Democratic star probably isn’t too far from the truth, but it’s still tough to predict who will fight their way onto the political landscape in years to come. After all, President Obama’s rise was almost meteoric–most people did not know who he was just a few years before he accepted the nomination for President from the Democratic Party. Whether or not Castro will end up living up to his potential can only be told by time.

Resources

Primary 

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland: Gentrification and Financial Health Report 2013

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development: Office of Inspector General, Memorandum NO: 2012-FW1804

White House: President Obama Nominates Julián Castro as Next HUD Secretary, and Shaun Donovan as OMB Director

Additional

Latin Post: Julián Castro HUD Secretary Nomination Endorsed by National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals

Inman: National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals backs Julián Castro to lead HUD

Bloomberg: Castro Move to HUD Sets Up Possible VP Selection in 2016

Politico: For Julián Castro, Plenty of Challenges at HUD

Texas Monthly: Alamo Heights

Politico: Julián Castro’s San Antonio Misused HUD money

Washington Post: Julián Castro Nominated as HUD secretary

Monitor: Commentary: Should Julián Castro Go to DC to Head HUD?

New Republic: Why Would Obama Put a Rising Democratic Star Into a Cabinet Backwater?

CityLab: Why Julián Castro’s Record as a Mayor of San Antonio Doesn’t Necessarily Tell Us Much About Hist Future at HUD 

NPR: Obama Taps San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro For HUD Secretary

LA Times: Obama Picks San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro to be Housing Secretary

Washington Examiner: Barack Obama Names Julián Castro for HUD, Shaun Donovan for OMB

Washington Examiner: If Chosen For HUD, Julian Castro’s Work, Big Payday Could Face Scrutiny

Ryan Purcell

Ryan D. Purcell holds an MA in American History from Rutgers University where he explored the intersection between hip hop graffiti writers and art collectives on the Lower East Side. His research is based on experience working with the Newark Public Arts Project and from tagging independently throughout New Jersey and New York. Contact Ryan at staff@LawStreetMedia.com.

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