With the Iraqi government, Kurdish peshmerga fighters, tribal militia groups, U.S. special operations forces, and coalition airstrikes converging on Mosul, one major global power is threatening to undermine the push toward the Islamic State’s largest remaining redoubt: Turkey. The leaders of Iraq and Turkey have been trading rhetorical barbs in recent weeks, and Turkey is taking concrete steps to encroach on a battle that none of the other involved parties welcomes it in.

Referencing Turkey’s former Ottoman-era rule, and the Ottoman Parliament’s claim to Mosul being Turkish territory, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a recent speech: “We have a historical responsibility in the region.”

But the modern states involved in the fight to reclaim Mosul from ISIS want Turkey to refrain from joining them. In a recent editorial in The National Interest, Zalmay Khalilzad, the former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan and Iraq, warned of what an active Turkey in Iraq might portend: “there is danger of a war within a war that could damage the prospects for retaking and stabilizing Mosul,” he wrote.  

To Mosul’s north, the Turkish government maintains a unit of soldiers at a base in the town of Bashiqa, without the approval of the Iraqi government. A U.S. official familiar with Turkey’s presence in the country told the New York Times under the condition of anonymity that a unit of 600 to 800 Turkish soldiers are stationed in Bashiqa, training peshmerga forces, and Sunni Arab fighters, as well as launching tank and artillery shells at ISIS targets. Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi recently demanded they leave.

Turkish PM laying new/old claim to Mosul, Kirkuk, Aleppo and some Greek islands. Turkish army already on outskirts of Mosul and Aleppo. https://t.co/uwYZuedPVL

— Mark MacKinnon (@markmackinnon) October 24, 2016

As it has done in Syria, Turkey is flexing its military might in another sovereign state without approval, breaching the contract of sovereignty with tank and troop deployments. So what does it gain by chipping into the Mosul operation?

For one, it may hope to protect against a push by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party–a U.S. ally that Turkey deems a terrorist organization–in southeast Turkey. The group maintains bases in the mountainous regions north of Mosul. Ethnic Turks live in areas around Mosul, so it has a stake in protecting them as well, especially considering Iran’s influence in the region.

Perhaps foreshadowing Khalilzad’s gloomy forecast of a war within a war, Abadi issued a missive to the Turkish government in a recent speech: “We are ready for them,” he said. “This is not a threat or a warning, this is about Iraqi dignity.”

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

The post How Turkey Might Disrupt the Operation to Retake Mosul from ISIS appeared first on Law Street.

Turkey backtracked on Monday after suggesting a child between 12 and 14 years old carried out the suicide bombing that killed 54 people at a wedding on Saturday. “A clue has not yet been found concerning the perpetrator,” said Turkey’s Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, calling President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s previous statement a “guess” based on witness accounts. Another 70 wedding guests were wounded, including the groom, after explosions rocked the wedding in the southeastern city of Gaziantep. Nearly half of the dead were under 14 years old.

In his remarks on Sunday, Erdogan said early signs point to the Islamic State, or ISIS, as responsible for the attack. ISIS has sent children to carry out its murderous missions in the past. But the prime minister on Monday clarified that the identity of the perpetrator is foggy, saying officials are unsure at this point if it was a “child or a grown-up” who carried out the attack.

The wedding was for a member of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP). Turkey’s Kurds–a stateless ethnic group with distinct populations in Iraq, Syria, and Turkey–act as a potent force in the fight against ISIS. Yet they are also adversaries of Erdogan’s government, which considers the PKK–the Kurdish governing body–a terrorist organization. Gaziantep is roughly 50 kilometers (about 30 miles) from the Syrian border, thought to be a convening site for ISIS fighters in Turkey. On Monday, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu voiced his country’s need to rid itself of any ISIS influence.

Turkey is rocked by a string of attacks in the past year as turmoil deepens. Here is a helpful map. pic.twitter.com/jasXik0gju

— Mahir Zeynalov (@MahirZeynalov) August 22, 2016

“Our border has to be completely cleansed of Daesh [the Arabic name for ISIS]. It’s natural for us to give whatever kind of support is necessary,” he said. Some experts see Saturday’s attack as having a duel-motivation: retaliation for recent battlefield successes by Syrian Kurds, and an attempt to fan the flames of ethnic tension already rife in a country still recovering from a failed coup attempt last month.

A statement from the White House National Security Council on Sunday said: “The United States condemns in the strongest possible terms yesterday’s terrorist attack.” It also said Vice President Joe Biden will be traveling to Ankara on Wednesday to discuss strategies regarding ISIS.

As funerals for those killed began on Sunday, so did reminders of how divided and tense Turkey is at the moment. At one funeral, mourners were mostly Kurdish. When Turkish officials came bearing Turkish flags, the Kurdish mourners grew angry and began hurling rocks at the officials.

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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