Mirroring the national trend of declining violent crime, the majority of Law Street’s Top 10 Most Dangerous Cities under 200,000 continue to experience decreases in overall violent crime. Based on new data released by the FBI February 18, seven out of these Top 10 cities had less crime than the same period during the prior year. Five of the Top 10 show sharper declines than the national average of -5.4 percent — most notably Flint, Mich. where violent crime was nearly 27 percent behind the 2012 six-month figures.

The FBI’s semiannual report covers January to June 2013 — the most recent period for which comprehensive crime statistics are available. Law Street’s analysis of this preliminary data for each of the Top 10 Most Dangerous Cities Under 200,000 appears below as an update to our original rankings published last Fall. Changes in these preliminary statistics, included below, compared with the same time period in the previous year provide key information on emerging trends in these important cities ahead of the full-year coverage of rankings that will be available this Fall. Click here for developing Crime in America 2014 coverage.

1. Flint, Mich.

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
Flint, Mich. ranks as the number one most dangerous city with a population under 200,000; however, it leads this pack with a 26.38 percent drop in total violent crime from January to June 2013 versus prior year. Flint is one of many cities reporting rape data this year according to the FBI’s new, expanded definition of forcible rape, so the year over year data for this particular category is not comparable; however, the city’s huge decreases in murder, robbery, and aggravated assault all counter balanced that particular issue. With a violent crime rate of 1,021 per 100,000 people, Flint shows some signs of progress.

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: -26.38%
Murder: -22.58%
Rape: +45.161%*
Robbery: -17.97%
Aggravated Assault: -33.07%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF FLINT’S 2012 RANKING

2. New Haven, Conn.

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
The #2 Most Dangerous City under 200,000, New Haven, Conn. shows modest gains in its fight against crime. Violent crime in the state’s second-largest city dropped 8.11 percent in the first six months of 2013 versus the same period in 2012. Despite a 37.50 percent increase in rape (associated with the FBI’s new, expanded definition of forcible rape), there were still significant declines in the remaining categories of murder, robbery, and aggravated assault (-11.11 percent, -1.39 percent, and -16.45 percent, respectively).

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: -8.11%
Murder: -11.11%
Rape: +37.50%*
Robbery: -1.39%
Aggravated Assault: -16.45%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF NEW HAVEN’S 2012 RANKING

3. Rockford, Ill.

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
Illinois’ second most populous city, Rockford, experienced a 6.37 percent decrease in total violent crime from January to June 2013 over the prior year. Robbery in the #3 Most Dangerous City under 200,000 dropped by nearly a quarter, and although murder increased by the same amount, this reflected a move from four murders to five.

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: -6.37%
Murder: +25.00%
Rape: +21.31%*
Robbery: -24.46%
Aggravated Assault: -3.18%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF ROCKFORD’S 2012 RANKING

4. Hartford, Conn.

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
Connecticut’s capital city is the #4 Most Dangerous City under 200,000, and the second of three Nutmeg State cities on this list. Similar to New Haven, Hartford’s violent crime dropped by nearly nine percent during the first six months of 2013, including an 11 percent decrease in murder and a nearly 19 percent drop in aggravated assault. Not encouragingly, rape in the city increased by more than 33 percent, while robbery was up nearly five percent.

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: -8.96%
Murder: -11.11%
Rape: +33.33%
Robbery: +4.47%
Aggravated Assault: -18.20%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF HARTFORD’S 2012 RANKING

5. Little Rock, Ark.

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
Arkansas’ capital, the #5 Most Dangerous City under 200,000, didn’t fare quite as well as the top four Most Dangerous Cities on this list. Violent crime in Little Rock increased slightly in the first six months of 2013 due to a 19 percent spike in robbery. Murder, aggravated assault, and rape were all down year over year (-14.29 percent, -2.63 percent, and -23.61 percent respectively), though the rape figures are not comparable to prior year.

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: +2.03%
Murder: -14.29%
Rape: -23.61%*
Robbery: +19.53%
Aggravated Assault: -2.63%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF LITTLE ROCK’S 2012 RANKING

6. Bridgeport, Conn.

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
Bridgeport, Connecticut’s most populous, experienced the greatest drop in violent crime during the first six months of 2013 of all three off the state’s ranking cities. The #6 Most Dangerous City under 200,000 experienced declines in three out of four violent crime categories, including half as many murders than the same period during the prior year; however, there was a slight increase in rape, as the city moved from 25 to 28 cases in 2013.

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: -11.73%
Murder: -54.55%
Rape: +12.00%
Robbery: -11.74%
Aggravated Assault: -12.04%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF BRIDGEPORT’S 2012 RANKING

7. Richmond, Calif.

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
Richmond, Calif., the #7 Most Dangerous City under 200,000, experienced the sharpest increase (+19.53 percent) in violent crime of the Top Ten cities on this list. Crime in the bay area city increased in three out of four violent crime categories, most notably robbery and aggravated assault (+22.95 percent and +20.18 percent, respectively).

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: +19.53%
Murder: +10.00%
Rape: -13.04%
Robbery: +22.95%
Aggravated Assault: +20.18%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF RICHMOND’S 2012 RANKING

8. Odessa, Texas

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
Violent crime in Odessa, Texas remained fairly constant during January to June 2013 over prior year, with a decrease of less than one percent. Robbery and rape increased minimally (25 and 4 more cases for this period, respectively), and aggravated assault declined by nearly seven percent.

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: -0.70%
Murder: +/-0.00%
Rape: +17.39%
Robbery: +42.37%
Aggravated Assault: -6.75%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF ODESSA’S 2012 RANKING

9. Paterson, N.J.

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
New Jersey’s third most populous city, and the only member of the Garden State ranked on this list, Paterson’s violent crime declined modestly during the first six months of 2013 (versus 2012). Declines in murder and aggravated assault were countered by increases in rape (+22.22 percent) and robbery (+4.28 percent) in the first half of the year.

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: -2.95%
Murder: -44.44%
Rape: +22.22%
Robbery: +4.28%
Aggravated Assault: -11.21%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF PATERSON’S 2012 RANKING

10. Springfield, Mass.

PRELIMINARY 2013 UPDATE
New England’s fourth-largest city, Springfield, Mass., rounds out the list of Top 10 Most Dangerous Cities under 200,000. The western Massachusetts city experienced an increase in violent crime across all relevant categories except for aggravated assault, which decreased by seven percent. Most notably, murder in Springfield was more than 83 percent ahead of the same time period in 2012.

PRELIMINARY 2013 VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS
Data below reflects changes for period January to June 2013 versus same period in 2012.
Total Violent Crime: +6.43%
Murder: +83.33%
Rape: +42.86%*
Robbery: +32.39%
Aggravated Assault: -7.18%

CLICK HERE FOR FULL COVERAGE OF SPRINGFIELD’S 2012 RANKING

Research and analysis by Law Street’s Crime in America Team: Chelsey Goff, Anneliese Mahoney, Ashley Powell, and Kevin Rizzo. 

Sources:

Violent crime, population, murder, and officer statistics are from the FBI Preliminary Semiannual Uniform Crime Report, January – June 2013.

Click here to read more Crime in America coverage.

*The figure shown for the 2013 rape offense was reported using the new definition of rape and is not comparable to previous years’ historical forcible rape data.

Chelsey D. Goff

Chelsey D. Goff was formerly Chief People Officer at Law Street. She is a Granite State Native who holds a Master of Public Policy in Urban Policy from the George Washington University. She’s passionate about social justice issues, politics — especially those in First in the Nation New Hampshire — and all things Bravo. Contact Chelsey at staff@LawStreetMedia.com.

The post New FBI Data for Dangerous Mid-Sized Cities: Crime Drops, Flint Stands Out appeared first on Law Street.

Click here for FBI crime data

In the United States, there is a disproportionately high level of violent crime in densely populated areas; however, crime levels in similar size cities vary widely. This calls us to investigate what factors make certain cities safer or more dangerous than others. To properly compare and analyze these cities, we group them into large and small categories. A large city is considered to be one that has a population greater than 200,000 people. We then further adjust for population by ranking each city by its violent crime rate, which is the measure of how many violent crimes occurred per 100,000 people in 2012. Violent crime is defined by the total number of murders, aggravated assaults, robberies, and forcible rapes during the year.  Although murder is included in the aggregate violent crime rate, we also report the murder rate separately for each city.

For additional information on Law Street’s crime-ranking methodology, click here.

Here are the 10 most dangerous small cities in the United States based on the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report Statistics released September 16, 2013:

1. Flint, Mich.

Flint, Michigan is the most dangerous city in America for the second year in a row. Flint had 2,729 violent crimes per 100,000 residents in 2012, which reflects a notable increase from 2,336 in 2011. The city also had the highest murder rate in 2012 with 61 murders occurring for every 100,000 residents.

Flint was once a productive manufacturing city, but was one of the worst victims of the automotive decline in America.  As many local factories shut down and moved away, very little was done to attract new jobs and the city was left to decay.  As a result, Flint’s population has dramatically declined, losing approximately 18 percent of its residents in the last 12 years.  The unemployment rate in Flint in 2012 was 9.5 percent, and although that reflects a significant improvement from its peak at 14.5 percent in 2009, it remains very high relative to the national average.  Additionally, Flint still has a low median income, which, according to the Census Bureau, is at almost half of the nationally determined poverty line. Arguably the largest contributor to crime in Flint is its extremely low number of police officers relative to its population.  Flint ranks 218th in terms of officers per population among cities with over 100,000 residents, but first in terms of violent crime per population.

Violent Crime Rate:   2729.46 per 100,000 people Population:  101,632 Murder Rate: 61.99 per 100,000 people Officer to Population Ratio: 1: 854 Median Household Income: $26,621 Unemployment Rate:  9.5 percent Dangerous Small City Rank in 2011: #1

2. New Haven, Conn.

New Haven is the first of three Connecticut cities featured on our list of dangerous small cities.  New Haven has frequently found itself listed as one of the most dangerous cities in America over the past several years, prompting officials to make policing changes.  The police department has reported recent improvements in crime rates as well as community trust in officers due to increased presence and visibility.  Although the New Haven police department has started to increase the number of patrolling officers to promote its new community oriented policing strategy, many believe that the economic inequality needs to be addressed before a reduction in crime can occur.

Violent Crime Rate:  1439.19 per 100,000 people Population: 129,934 Murder Rate: 13.08 per 100,000 people Officer to Population Ratio: 1: 561 Median Household Income:  $39,094  Unemployment: 12.1 percent Dangerous Small City Rank in 2011: #4

3. Rockford, Ill.

Ranking number three on our list is Rockford, Illinois. Poverty is a major issue for the city, with a an unemployment rate of over 11 percent (though this represents a sharp decrease from a high of 19 percent in 2010). This may be the reason why Rockford has the second highest rate of aggravated assaults among small cities in the U.S., and the eighth highest among all cities with a population over 100,000.  Its annual median household income is well below the poverty line, which the Census Bureau determined to be less than $50,052.  With a disproportionately large amount of violent crime it is no surprise that Rockford is ranked number three on our list.

Violent Crime Rate: 1367.76 per 100,000 people Population: 152,293 Murder Rate: 5.91 per 100,000 people Officer to Population Ratio: 1: 561 Median Household Income: $38,864 Unemployment Rate: 11.4 percent Dangerous Small City Rank in 2011: #3

4. Hartford, Conn.

Like many other cities in Connecticut, gang violence in Hartford continues to be one of the major contributors to crime.  According to an internal police report, gang activity has spread throughout the entire city, and has even begun reaching a large number of juveniles.  An article on NBC’s Connecticut news site estimates that there are nearly 4,000 gang members in the city, 800 of whom are reportedly under the age of 17. Furthermore, there are nearly 140 different gangs in existence as of 2009, and although gangs vary in their contributions to crime, the numbers show that they are a very visible feature of the city.

Violent Crime Rate: 1321.85 per 100,000 people Population: 125,203 Murder Rate: 18.37 per 100,000 people Officer to Population Ratio: 1: 261 Median Household Income: $64,007 Unemployment Rate: 8.4 percent Dangerous Small City Rank in 2011: #5

5. Little Rock, Ark.

Little Rock has one of the highest murder rates in the country, ranking second among all of the small cities in the United States. With nearly 23 murders per 100,000 people, Little Rock has recently been experiencing serious problems. The city endured 10 murders in July 2012 alone, the most murders in a month since 1993. Following a 1994 HBO documentary on the city’s violent criminal activity, gang presence remains a major issue and cause for concern.

Violent Crime Rate:   1315.45 per 100,000 people Population: 196,055 Murder Rate: 22.95 per 100,000 people Officer to Population Ratio: 1: 520 Median Household Income: $44,392 Unemployment Rate: 6.5 percent Dangerous Small City Rank in 2011: #2

6. Bridgeport, Conn.

Bridgeport faces major street violence issues, prompting Mayor Bill Finche to sign a controversial ordinance instituting a curfew in order to crack down on crime. The mayor believes this will give the CTPD additional assistance in restricting local street violence.  According to the mayor, most crime among the city’s youth occurs in the early evening, which is the time targeted by this new ordinance.  Bridgeport is Connecticut’s largest city in terms of population, and its high level of gang activity reflects what appears to be a statewide problem.

Violent Crime Rate: 1205.23 per 100,000 people Population:  146,030 Murder Rate: 15.07 per 100,000 people Officer to Population Ratio: 1: 353 Median Household Income: $40,947 Unemployment Rate:  7.8 percent Dangerous Small City Rank in 2011: #11

7. Richmond, Calif.

Richmond, California, ranking number seven on our list, has recently increased investment in its police force; however, crime continues to rise in the area.  Despite the increase in public safety spending, Richmond still lags behind most cities on this list in terms of officer to population ratio.  The Richmond police have also faced significant issues with clearing murder cases, which may be influenced by the high level of gang presence and violence in the city.

Violent crime rating: 1092.55 per 100,000 people Population: 106,357 Murder Rate: 16.92 per 100,000 people Officer to Population Ratio: 1: 182 Median Household Income: $54,554 Unemployment: 14.6 percent Dangerous Small City Rank in 2011: #13

8. Odessa, Texas

Although Odessa has the lowest unemployment rate among the cities on this list, its police department has been facing several personnel and funding issues.  With only one officer for every 709 residents, Odessa’s police force is undermanned compared to many cities of  similar size. Recent requests for additional officers have been rejected due to budgetary constraints, preventing the city from reaching its goal of two officers for every 1,000 people.

Violent Crime Rate: 1064.31 per 100,000 people Population: 103,635 Murder Rate: 4.82 per 100,000 Police Officer to Population Ratio:  1:  709 Median Household Income: $50,813 Unemployment: 4.2 percent Dangerous Small City Rank in 2011: #34

9. Paterson, N.J.

Paterson’s crime level is considered by many to be a result of the city’s high level of poverty, unemployment and gang violence.  Paterson is also one of the more prominent victims of industrial decay, as the once working class city has continued to decline over the past several decades.  There seems to be a very strong connection between Paterson’s economic decline and high crime rate, further indicating that unless its economy is able to rebound, the level of crime in Paterson is unlikely to improve.  Additionally, many community members blame the local education system, which they believe needs to be improved in order to curtail gang activity and youth violence.

Violent Crime Rate: 1054.72 per 100,000 people Population: 147,148 Murder Rate: 14.27 per 100,000 people Officer to Population Ratio: 1: 371 Median Household Income: $34,301 Unemployment: 16.5 percent Dangerous Small City Rank in 2011: #10

10. Springfield, Mass.

Rounding out the list is Springfield, Massachusetts, which, according to the FBI, has the 10th highest level of violent crime per capita among small cities in the United States. Springfield’s high levels of violent crime and gang activity have lead its police department to adopt Iraq-style “counterinsurgency” strategy. This strategy involves community building in which officers work to solve the underlying problems that contribute to crime. Increased police visibility has also been used to help combat issues with gangs in an attempt to make Springfield residents feel more secure. Although many members of the local police department believe these strategies will help, the jury is still out on the effect of the these new efforts and Springfield remains one of the most dangerous American cities in 2012. Violent Crime Rate:  1039.36 per 100,000 people Population: 154,518 Murder Rate: 7.12 per 100,000 people Officer to Population Ratio: 1:420 Median Household Income: $52,762 Unemployment Rate: 7.9 percent Dangerous Small City Rank in 2011: #9

Research and analysis by Law Street’s Crime in America Team: Kasandra Cisneros, Valeriya Metla, Asim Mian, and Kevin Rizzo.

Sources:

Violent crime, population, murder, and officer statistics are from the FBI 2012 Uniform Crime Report

Median household income is measured from 2007-2011, and is from the U.S. Census Bureau

Unemployment rate statistics come from 2012 data compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Click here for FBI data on each of the cities ranked above. Click here for all Law Street crime data.

Click here for additional information on Law Street’s crime-ranking methodology.

Click here to read more Crime in America coverage.

Featured image courtesy of [Michigan Municipal League via Flickr]

Kevin Rizzo

Kevin Rizzo is the Crime in America Editor at Law Street Media. An Ohio Native, the George Washington University graduate is a founding member of the company. Contact Kevin at krizzo@LawStreetMedia.com.

The post Crime in America: Top 10 Most Dangerous Cities Under 200,000 appeared first on Law Street.