With the Iraqi government, Kurdish peshmerga fighters, tribal militia groups, U.S. special operations forces, and coalition airstrikes converging on Mosul, one major global power is threatening to undermine the push toward the Islamic State’s largest remaining redoubt: Turkey. The leaders of Iraq and Turkey have been trading rhetorical barbs in recent weeks, and Turkey is taking concrete steps to encroach on a battle that none of the other involved parties welcomes it in.

Referencing Turkey’s former Ottoman-era rule, and the Ottoman Parliament’s claim to Mosul being Turkish territory, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a recent speech: “We have a historical responsibility in the region.”

But the modern states involved in the fight to reclaim Mosul from ISIS want Turkey to refrain from joining them. In a recent editorial in The National Interest, Zalmay Khalilzad, the former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan and Iraq, warned of what an active Turkey in Iraq might portend: “there is danger of a war within a war that could damage the prospects for retaking and stabilizing Mosul,” he wrote.  

To Mosul’s north, the Turkish government maintains a unit of soldiers at a base in the town of Bashiqa, without the approval of the Iraqi government. A U.S. official familiar with Turkey’s presence in the country told the New York Times under the condition of anonymity that a unit of 600 to 800 Turkish soldiers are stationed in Bashiqa, training peshmerga forces, and Sunni Arab fighters, as well as launching tank and artillery shells at ISIS targets. Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi recently demanded they leave.

Turkish PM laying new/old claim to Mosul, Kirkuk, Aleppo and some Greek islands. Turkish army already on outskirts of Mosul and Aleppo. https://t.co/uwYZuedPVL

— Mark MacKinnon (@markmackinnon) October 24, 2016

As it has done in Syria, Turkey is flexing its military might in another sovereign state without approval, breaching the contract of sovereignty with tank and troop deployments. So what does it gain by chipping into the Mosul operation?

For one, it may hope to protect against a push by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party–a U.S. ally that Turkey deems a terrorist organization–in southeast Turkey. The group maintains bases in the mountainous regions north of Mosul. Ethnic Turks live in areas around Mosul, so it has a stake in protecting them as well, especially considering Iran’s influence in the region.

Perhaps foreshadowing Khalilzad’s gloomy forecast of a war within a war, Abadi issued a missive to the Turkish government in a recent speech: “We are ready for them,” he said. “This is not a threat or a warning, this is about Iraqi dignity.”

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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Iraqi forces, aligned with local tribal units, Kurdish peshmerga fighters, and U.S. Special Operations troops began the operation to wrest the city of Mosul from the claws of the Islamic State this week. As the nearly 100,000-strong coalition crept closer to the city proper on Wednesday, villages on its fringe are being liberated, fierce battles are being fought, and some citizens are fleeing their homes for neighboring Syria.

However, ISIS is not ceding control of the outlying villages without a fight. In Qaraqosh, a Christian village 30 kilometers east of Mosul, ISIS militants and an Iraqi-led force exchanged heavy gunfire, a general involved in the fight told CNN. He said ISIS forces are concentrated in the center of the village, as parts of the fringes have been liberated, while airstrikes rain down to support the Iraqi-led troops. Reuters reported that villages just outside of the city are booby trapped with tunnels and bombs.

In June 2014, Iraqi forces fled Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city with a population upwards of two million, ceding control of the city to ISIS. The jihadist group has ruled the city under a strict Islamic code ever since. Women are forced to be covered in public, smoking and drinking alcohol is prohibited, and minor offenses could result in a beheading. The offensive, announced by Iraq’s Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi early Monday morning, is expected to take months.

Once Mosul is free from ISIS control, it’s unclear how power will transition and to whom exactly it will transition to. Many of the city’s residents are Sunni Muslims, while the bulk of the Iraqi government are Shia. Years of sectarian tensions between Sunni citizens and Shia leaders has led to deep mistrust. In addition, the Iraqi government is concerned that the Kurds, who are helping them in the fight against ISIS, might seek to control the city themselves after ISIS is forced out.

“We would have loved to have a political plan along with a military plan, how to manage Mosul, how to administer Mosul, because Mosul has a variety of religions, with ethnicities,” Iraqi Kurdish President Massoud Barzani told CNN. Acknowledging a political plan “would have taken a longer time,” Barzani said that the Peshmerga and Iraqi forces are looking for a “good solution” for Mosul.

The good news is that Mosul is the last large city under ISIS control in Iraq, and retaking it could deliver a knockout blow to the group’s operations in Iraq and beyond.

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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