Click here for FBI crime data

Although most crime in the United States occurs in densely populated areas, there are several large cities that somehow manage to keep their crime levels low despite their sizes. These cities beg the question: what factors make one city safer than another?

To properly compare and analyze these cities, we group them into large and small categories.  A large city is considered to be one that has a population greater than 200,000 people.  We then further adjust for population by ranking each city by its violent crime rate, which is the measure of how many violent crimes occurred per 100,000 people in 2012.

Violent crime is defined by the total number of murders, aggravated assaults, robberies, and forcible rapes during the year.  Although murder is included in the aggregate violent crime rate, we also report the murder rate separately for each city.

For additional information on Law Street’s crime-ranking methodology, click here.

Here are the 10 safest cities over 200,000 in the United States based on the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report Statistics released September 16, 2013:

1. Irvine, Calif.

Irvine is rated number one on our top ten safest cities list because it has the lowest amount of violent crime by population.  What is the secret of its security and prosperity? Irvine is a planned city that was developed by the Irvine Company in the 1960s. The overall design incorporates ample common spaces, townships with commercial centers, schools and churches. Although Irvine has more than 200,000 residents, it had only 110 reported instances of violent crime in 2012.  Its police officer to population ratio and low murder rate further indicate how safe Irvine is. Demographic and economic factors provide a picture of a prosperous upper-middle class city. The population of the city is predominantly white (50.48 percent) and Asian (39.16 percent) with a small proportion of Hispanics and blacks. University of California Irvine is the top employer, providing more than 14,000 jobs for its residents. Two important factors influence Irvine’s low danger rating: the overall economic prosperity and relative homogeneity of its residents; and city’s unique design that further reinforces community development and integration.

Violent Crime Rate: 50.57 per 100,000 people

Population: 217, 528

Murder Rate: 0.92 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:1083

Median Household Income: $85,615

Unemployment Rate: 5.7 percent

Safest City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #1

2. Gilbert, Ariz.

The most notable aspect of Gilbert’s low level of crime is the number of police officers that the city employs.  Having only one officer for every 965 people, Gilbert has a very efficient policing system given that it had only 205 instances of violent crime and 5 murders in 2012.  Because Gilbert is such a safe city to live in it has recently experienced significant population growth.  As a result, its police force may need to dramatically expand as people continue to flock to the city. Gilbert has been able to successfully target its few police officers to increase police visibility and keep its crime rate low.

Violent Crime Rate: 95.68 per 100,000 people

Population: 214,264

Murder Rate: 2.33 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:965

Median Household Income: $80,090

Unemployment Rate: 5.3 percent

Safest City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #2

3. Plano, Texas

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Plano’s unemployment rate in 2012 was 9.45 percent, which shows a steady decline since 2010. One reason for Plano’s prosperity and security is a high concentration of companies such as Frito-Lay, JC Penney, EDS and Perot Systems, which provide steady career opportunities to its residents. The majority of its population work in trade, transportation, education, healthcare, and business services. In addition, Texas’ pro-business climate and lack of personal and corporate income taxes further stimulates economy and investments in the city. The murder rate in Plano is significantly lower than the national average, which reflects a moderate officer to individual ratio with only 339 total officers employed. Steady job growth and a favorable business climate in Plano direct its development toward economic expansion and crime reduction.

Violent Crime Rate: 130.74 per 100,000 people

Population: 214,264

Murder Rate: 2.33 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:807

Median Household Income: $83,239

Unemployment Rate: 9.45 percent

Safest City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #3

4. Fremont, Calif.

Due to its convenient location in the Bay area of San Francisco, Fremont is in the center of Silicon Valley, with more than 30 clean tech companies and advanced manufacturing enterprises. The city is also booming with green and high tech information technology jobs. It was ranked number one by Size-Up.com in terms of start-up businesses per capita and voted the second most innovative city in America by The Daily Beast. The high median income of the residents attracts population growth, emergence of new businesses, and safety of the community. The unemployment rate has also steadily declined since 2010. Fremont has the lowest police officer to population ratio of all the cities on our list, and it is an affluent, progressive, and safe city.

Violent Crime Rate: 139.77 per 100,000 people

Population: 218,927

Murder Rate: 0.09 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1: 1251

Median Household Income: $92,655

Unemployment Rate: 7.6 percent

Safest City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #5

5. Scottsdale, Ariz.

With only 147 violent crimes per 100,000 residents, Scottsdale takes the number five spot on our list of safest large cities in America. Scottsdale is a homogeneous city: 89.27 percent of its population is white and over the age of 45. Most of its residents work in healthcare, information technology, education, and city government. One of the biggest employers in Scottsdale is General Dynamics 4C Systems, which produces communication and information technologies for the U.S. Department of Defense, federal and intelligence agencies, and several international customers. The officer to population ratio is fairly high in Scottsdale which also contributes to its safety and low murder rate. Thus, the vibrant economy, high officer to population ratio and median age of Scottsdale’s residents contributes to the safety and advancement the city.

Violent Crime Rate: 147.25 per 100,000 people

Population: 223,432

Murder Rate: 0.13 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1: 557

Median Household Income: $71,564

Unemployment Rate: 7.52 percent

Safest City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #6

6. Henderson, Nev.

The population of Henderson is predominantly white (76.89 percent) with equal proportions of African American and Asian residents. The murder rate per 100,000 people is 0.15 which is very low, and consistent with the low officer to population distribution. The unemployment rate in Henderson is the highest among all cities on our list, but it has been steadily declining since 2010. The city provides many educational, recreational, and business opportunities for its population. Its close proximity to the Las Vegas Strip, and carefully planned residential communities also increase economic opportunities and the quality of its residents’ lives. The second largest city in Nevada, Henderson incorporates an abundance of recreational and community facilities, including award-winning parks and recreation centers. The high standard of living, strong sense of community, and financial stability of Henderson’s residents all foster safety and security within the city.

Violent Crime Rate: 168.90 per 100,000 people

Population: 263,469

Murder Rate: 0.15 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1: 803

Median Household Income: $66,606

Unemployment Rate: 17.06 percent

Safest City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #7

7. Virginia Beach, Va.

With close proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and a diverse mix of industries, Virginia Beach has a strong economy and low level of crime. Major employers such as Naval Air Station Oceana, Joint Expeditionary Base Little Creek, and Sentara Healthcare provide jobs for more than 17,000 residents. The city has the largest concentration of military personnel outside the Pentagon, and it is also a popular tourist destination with 5 million visitors annually. Virginia Beach is a dynamic community with very low murder and violent crime rates as a result of the right mix of industrial complexes in the city, presence of military personnel, and tourism.

Violent Crime Rate: 169.35 per 100,000 people

Population: 447,588

Murder Rate: 0.47 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1: 571

Median Household Income: $58,568

Unemployment Rate: 13.4 percent

Safest City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #4

8. Irving, Texas

Although the median income level in Irving is lower than the national poverty line, the unemployment rate is rather low, and has continued to decline since 2010. Irving is home to 50 Fortune 500 headquarters, which has spurred great economic development. The infrastructure and government of Irving also promote favorable conditions for the creation of small businesses, and further development of major industries. The murder rate is consistent with other cities on our top 10 list, while the officer to population ratio is rather high. One very notable aspect of Irving is its high levels of diversity, as the most diverse zip code in America is located within its city limits.  Economic opportunity in Irving has created a very community-friendly environment, which further contributes to its low level of violent crime.

Violent Crime Rate: 226.33 per 100,000 people

Population: 224,007

Murder Rate: 0.13 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1: 680

Median Household Income: $47,248

Unemployment Rate: 8.38 percent

Safest City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #9

9. Garland, Texas

Garland is part of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, which gives the city many economic advantages. Garland is a middle class community with a relatively low rate of unemployment. The murder rate is also very low which explains the 1:758 police officer to population ratio. White residents constitute a large portion of the city’s population at 57.46 percent, with significantly lower percentages of Asian and black residents. However, there is a significant number of Hispanics in the city, as they account for 37.81 percent of its total population. Garland is focused on further development and revitalization of its diverse communities through an array of initiatives and programs that help to organize and advance different neighborhoods. Public safety is also improved by a variety of community programs, including Neighborhood Crime Watch and Crimestoppers. Garland’s stable economy helps keep crime levels low; however it is primarily the community-oriented population that helps keep the city safe for its residents.

Violent Crime Rate: 229.80 per 100,000 people

Population: 234,984

Murder Rate: 0.3 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:758

Median Household Income: $49,156

Unemployment Rate: 8.76 percent

Safest City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #8

10. Chula Vista, Calif.

Chula Vista has a rather low unemployment rate and fairly high median income level. The city is relatively diverse, with whites accounting for 53.70 percent, Hispanics 37.81 percent, Asians 14.37 percent, and blacks 4.6 percent. The city has a dynamic small business community, which serves as a stable base for economic growth and development. The tourism industry helps provide employment and an influx of spending into the economy. Chula Vista is on our safest cities list due to its advantageous coastline location, wide array of small businesses and tourist hot spots, and its safe environment.

Violent Crime Rate: 232.56 per 100,000 people

Population: 249,830

Murder Rate: 0.32 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:1189

Median Household Income: $67,265

Unemployment Rate: 10.34 percent

Safest City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #11

Research and analysis by Law Street’s Crime in America Team: Kasandra Cisneros, Valeriya Metla, Asim Mian, and Kevin Rizzo.

Sources:

Violent crime, population, murder, and officer statistics are from the FBI 2012 Uniform Crime Report.

Median household income is measured from 2007-2011, and is from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Unemployment rate statistics come from 2012 data compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Click here for FBI data on each of the cities ranked above. Click here for all Law Street crime data.

Click here for additional information on Law Street’s crime-ranking methodology.

Click here to read more Crime in America coverage.

Featured image courtesy of [David Eppstein via Wikipedia]

Kevin Rizzo

Kevin Rizzo is the Crime in America Editor at Law Street Media. An Ohio Native, the George Washington University graduate is a founding member of the company. Contact Kevin at krizzo@LawStreetMedia.com.

The post Crime in America: Top 10 Safest Cities Over 200,000 appeared first on Law Street.

Click here for FBI crime data

In the United States, there is a disproportionately high level of violent crime in densely populated areas; however, crime levels in similar-size cities vary to a wide degree. This calls us to investigate what factors make certain cities safer or more dangerous than others.

To properly compare and analyze these cities, we group them into large and small categories.  A large city is considered to be one that has a population greater than 200,000 people.  We  hen further adjust for population by ranking each city by its violent crime rate, which is the measure of how many violent crimes occurred per 100,000 people in 2012.

Violent crime is defined by the total number of murders, aggravated assaults, robberies, and forcible rapes during the year.  Although murder is included in the aggregate violent crime rate, we also report the murder rate separately for each city.  For additional information on Law Street’s crime-ranking methodology, click here.

Here are the 10 Most Dangerous Large Cities in the United States based on the FBI’s most recent Uniform Crime Report statistics, released September 16, 2013:

1. Detroit, Mich.

Detroit holds its place atop our list of the Most Dangerous Large Cities, and is second only to Flint, Mich. in the overall rankings, as it continues to suffer from a long term decline in population and employment.  Detroit’s $18 billion bankruptcy filing in July was the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history.  Although the city’s unemployment rate has dropped from its peak of 18.2 percent in July 2009, it remains well above the national level.  In the 1950s, Detroit was the fifth-largest city in the United States with nearly 2 million residents, but now fewer than half as many people call it home. The city has an estimated 78,000 abandoned homes spread across 140 square miles — a vast expanse that contributes to Detroit’s infamous 58-minute police response time. The city ended the year with a total of 386 murders and 15,009 violent crimes in 2012. 

Violent Crime Rate: 2122.91 per 100,000 people

Population: 707,096

Murder Rate:  54.59 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:275

Median Household Income:  $27,862

Unemployment Rate: 10.5 percent

Dangerous City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #1

2. Oakland, Calif.

Historically, crime has been a problem for Oakland, but in 2012 the number of reported violent crimes reached a decade high point. Despite its high crime rate, the city’s officer-population-ratio reveals that Oakland has relatively fewer sworn officers than many of the major cities on this list.  Recently, the city re-implemented a gang violence reduction plan that had been effective in the past for Oakland, as well as for other California cities. The plan known as Operation Ceasefire emphasizes a problem-oriented policing approach to crime hot spots.  The focus is on gun trafficking and gang violence. Operation Ceasefire marks a big change for the Oakland police department, which hopes that prioritizing the most urgent emergency calls will significantly reduce local crime.

Violent Crime Rate: 1993.31 per 100,000 people

Population: 399,487

Murder Rate: 31.79 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:638

Median Household Income: $51,144

Unemployment Rate: 8.1 percent

Dangerous City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #3

3. St. Louis, Mo.

Although St. Louis moved down in the rankings from its number two spot last year, it has consistently been ranked as one of the most dangerous cities over the past seven years.  St. Louis recently encountered significant budgeting pressures due to its expanding public pension costs.  As a result, the city’s police department was forced to cut back on the number of its patrolling officers. St. Louis is also set to lose a federal grant at the end of this year that covered the cost of 20 officers, causing Police Chief Sam Dotson to fight hard for budget increases. Dotson also emphasizes “hot-spot” policing, which involves increasing patrols in dangerous areas during times when crimes are most likely to occur. Criminologist Richard Rosenfeld argues that the reason St. Louis is ranked so high is, in part, a matter of geography. If suburban crime statistics were included, the crime rate would be diluted.

Violent Crime Rate: 1,776.46 per 100,000 people

Population: 318,667

Murder Rate: 35.46 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:241

Median Household Income: $34,402

Unemployment Rate: 7.6 percent

Dangerous City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #2

4.  Memphis, Tenn.

For the second year in a row, Memphis holds its position as the fourth most dangerous large city in America, and was ranked sixth overall in 2012. In addition to Memphis’ rank, Tennessee claimed the number one spot in the ranking of the most dangerous states in terms of violent crime per 100,000 people.

According to a Gallup poll last year, only 55 percent of the Memphis population responded that they feel safe in the city, the lowest percentage among the 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas.  With an unemployment rate of 11.1 percent and a major proportion of the city living under the poverty line, Memphis is ranked number one as the nation’s poorest city by its collected census data. The city ran a $26.5 million budget deficit, and projections indicate that this figure could rise to as high as $36.5 million if the current tax rate remains the same. With all the economic disadvantages Memphis is facing it is no surprise that it remains high in the rankings of most dangerous large cities.

Violent Crime Rate: 1,750. 28 per 100,000 people

Population: 657,436

Murder Rate: 20.23 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:272

Median Household Income: $37,072

Unemployment Rate: 9.0 Percent

Dangerous City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #4

5. Stockton, Calif.

Stockton, like Detroit, is another city that recently filed for bankruptcy after running up a debt of $900 million to the California Retirement System Fund. Because the city’s main focus has been on getting its debt paid off, Stockton has been unable to devote more resources to curtailing its high level of violent crime. Pension promises are on the verge of collapse, leading to dramatic budget cuts that have gutted essential public services such as the fire and police departments. Although Stockton’s unemployment rate has decreased slightly over the past two years, it remains very high at 15.2 percent.  With 71 murders in 2012 and a median household income of $45,606, the city ranks number five on this list.

Violent Crime Rate: 1547.95 per 100,000 people

Population: 299,195

Murder Rate: 23.74 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:904

Median Household Income: $47,365

Unemployment Rate: 15.2 Percent

Dangerous City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #8

6. Birmingham, Ala.

Birmingham moved down one spot in 2012 to sixth place on our list of most dangerous large cities. Although Birmingham has a relatively low unemployment rate, the median household income is under $32,000, well below the national average of $52,762.  Nearly 25 percent of Birmingham’s residents live below the poverty line, almost 10 percentage points below the national average of 14.3.  Although Birmingham moved down in the rankings, its violent crime rate per 100,000 residents experienced a slight increase, from 1483 in 2011 to 1,517 in 2012.  The city also experienced a notable increase in murders, going from 54 in 2011 to 67 in 2012.  The high murder rate in Birmingham has prompted academics to take a closer look at the city and the many social factors that contribute to crime.

Population: 213,266

Murder Rate: 31.42 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:247

Median Household Income: $31,898

Unemployment Rate: 6.4 percent

Dangerous City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #5

7.  Baltimore, Md.

Baltimore maintains its status as the seventh most dangerous large city in America for the second year in a row. Although Baltimore is near the bottom of the list in terms of violent crime per capita, it ranks third in murders per 100,000 residents among all large cities. Although the violent crime rate in Baltimore actually dropped between 2011 and 2012, murders in the city increased notably. Murder is not Baltimore’s only problem; a recent ABC News article called it the “heroin capital of the United States.” Baltimore has more sworn officers than most cities, ranking second highest among all large cities, and the highest among cities on this list. even with one officer for every 211 residents, the city’s large police presence has done little to prevent violent crime and murder.  Recent numbers indicate that murders  in the city remain high in 2013, as Baltimore just witnessed its 200th murder this year.

Violent Crime Rate: 1405.71 per 100,000 people

Population: 625,474

Murder Rate: 34.85 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:211

Median Household Income: $40,100

Unemployment Rate: 7.2 percent

Dangerous City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #7

8. Cleveland, Ohio

For 2012, Cleveland moved from the ninth to  eighth most dangerous large city. Cleveland experienced a significant increase in murders, rising from 74 in 2011 to 84 in 2012. Crime in Cleveland has also garnered significant media attention as several high-profile cases have recently emerged. Cleveland has been in the national spotlight for three major headline grabbing crimes in recent years, all of which were accounts of violent crime. Four years ago, police found 11 decomposed bodies inside a home in East Cleveland, another man was sentenced to 1,000 years in prison for kidnapping and murder this summer, and recently Cleveland prosecutors are seeking the death penalty for a man who allegedly kidnapped and killed three women. No one has been able to explain the prevalence of high profile crimes in Cleveland as the city’s crime statistics are similar to many others on this list, yet cases like these continue to surface.

Many point to the high level of poverty and unemployment in the city as the primary contributors to the city’s crime level. Cleveland has a very low median household income of $27,470, and according to the Census Bureau more than 32 percent of its population lives below the poverty line.

Violent Crime Rate: 1,383.76 per 100,000 people

Population: 393,781

Murder Rate: 21.33 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:266

Median Household Income: $27,470

Unemployment Rate: 7.1 percent

Dangerous City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #9

9. Atlanta, Ga.

With crime levels in Atlanta remaining relatively constant when comparing the 2011 and 2012 reports, the city dropped three spots to ninth on our list. Atlanta had 6,027 violent crimes in 2012, almost 60 percent of which were aggravated assaults. Overall, the city experienced a slight reduction in its violent crime rate, which fell from 1,432 to 1,379 per 100,000 people. The downward trend continued with its 2012 murder rate, which reached its lowest level in the last 50 years.  However, Atlanta has been in the news recently after the Justice Department questioned the city’s use of over $400,000 of federal grant money intended for reducing neighborhood crime.  City officials also faced scrutiny regarding claims that many neighborhoods have experienced decreases in crime, with the watchdog journalists at Politifact concluding that such claims are false.  

Violent Crime Rate: 1379.05 per 100,000 people

Population: 437,041

Murder Rate: 18.99 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:246

Median Household Income: $45,946

Unemployment Rate: 8.8 percent

Dangerous City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #6

10) Milwaukee, Wis.

Milwaukee jumped 13 places this year to replace Buffalo N.Y. as the 10th most dangerous large city in 2012. Ranked 23rd in 2011, Milwaukee has experienced a dramatic increase in crime:  the city’s violent crime rate has gone up by 22.8 percent from 2011. However, these changes are largely due to the Milwaukee Police Department’s crime reporting issues that were revealed in 2011 by The Milwaukee Sentinel. According to the newspaper, the police department misreported to the FBI more than 500 violent crime incidents as minor assaults. The newspaper also reported that the downward trend in violent crime that the Milwaukee police department had boasted over the past five years may actually be a result of misreporting. In other words, what looks like a dramatic increase in the amount of violent crimes in 2012 may actually reflect police efforts to correct its reporting system.  

Violent Crime Rate: 1294.47 per 100,000 people

Population: 599,395

Murder Rate:  15.18 per 100,000 people

Officer to Population Ratio: 1:314

Median Household Income: 43,397

Unemployment Rate: 7.4 percent

Dangerous City Over 200,000 Rank in 2011: #23

Research and analysis by Law Street’s Crime in America Team: Kasandra Cisneros, Asim Mian, Valeriya Metla, and Kevin Rizzo.

Sources:

Violent crime, population, murder, and officer statistics are from the FBI 2012 Uniform Crime Report.

Median household income is measured from 2007-2011, and is  from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Unemployment rate statistics come from 2012 data compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Click here for FBI data on each of the cities ranked above. Click here for all Law Street crime data.

Click here for additional information on Law Street’s crime-ranking methodology.

Click here to read more Crime in America coverage.

Featured image courtesy of [Bradley Siefert via Flickr]

Kevin Rizzo

Kevin Rizzo is the Crime in America Editor at Law Street Media. An Ohio Native, the George Washington University graduate is a founding member of the company. Contact Kevin at krizzo@LawStreetMedia.com.

The post Crime in America: Top 10 Most Dangerous Cities Over 200,000 appeared first on Law Street.