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Falling Fertility: The Impact of Declining Birth Rates

Michael Sliwinski — Sun, 12 Jul 2015 14:20:10 +0000

Image courtesy of [Joshua Rappeneker via Flickr]

A report recently released by the National Center for Health Statistics revealed some good news for our nation’s population growth for the first time since the beginning of the Great Recession. According to the study, the number of babies being born and the fertility rate increased by one percent–the first birth rate increase since 2007.

Growing birth rates are very important for a nation for a number of reasons, and the recent surge in births also points to several positive indicators, such as greater financial security. Read on to learn about the fuss about the birth rate, what it means for America, and what we need to consider about population growth moving forward.

A History of Fertility

To start, it is important to understand the terminology associated with birth rates. This begins with Total Fertility Rates (TFRs). This measures the average number of children a woman will have over the course of her life. Another term to understand is replacement level. The replacement level is the TFR required to maintain zero population growth, basically the number of births needed to equally replace the adults who are having babies. The United States’ replacement level is roughly 2.1 births per women. It is higher than two because it factors in the unfortunate truth that some people will die before they reach adulthood and can reproduce.

Around the turn of 20th century, the fertility rate in the United States was over three. The rate then dropped precipitously following the Great Depression, but that trend somewhat reversed leading into World War II, and the TFR continued to stay above replacement levels until the 1970s. There was a slight drop in the rate in this era, during the oil crisis. However, when the economy began to rebound again, so did the nation’s TFR, which continued at or above replacement levels until the Great Recession. The video below shows the correlation between birth rates and the economy:

Based on this data, it seems obvious that the number of births in the U.S. is tied to the success of the economy. But a more nuanced explanation is also required. For example, even when birth rates cratered during the Great Depression, they still remained higher than the birth rates following the uptick of the 1980s and 1990s. Essentially, the economy plays an important role, but current culture does too.

Falling Birth Rates

The recent low birth rates in the U.S. are not unique. In fact low birth rates might be the clearest predictor of a country’s level of development. In several European countries and Japan, the birth rate is 1.5 or lower, meaning below replacement levels. So, why is this happening and what do these shrinking birth rates mean? First let’s analyze the “why.” One of the common threads between these countries, besides a higher standard of living, is the improved status of women.

More Access to Education

One of the major factors in dictating how many children a woman is likely to have is how educated that woman is. It has been repeatedly shown that women who are exposed earlier to education and continue with their studies have lower birth rates. Conversely, in other nations in which this is not true, such as Eritrea on the eastern horn of Africa, birth rates are much higher at 4.6. This stands in stark contrast to highly educated Japan’s birth rate of 1.4.

Having Children Later

While the recent data did indicate that American women had more children last year, it also revealed something else interesting. Most of the women having those children were older, in the age groups of 30-34, 35-39, and even 40-44. On the other hand, women in the age bracket spanning 20-24 saw their number of births continue to decline.

Although having children later is not the taboo it once was, having a baby after the age of 40 still carries with it an added weight of potential health risks. But thanks to the fact that older woman are often healthier, more prepared financially and mentally, and are generally better educated, many of these concerns can be off-set.

Immigration

Following the “why” is the “what”: what do shrinking birth rates mean? One of the most important is that low birth rates can have a dramatic impact on immigration. Namely, in countries with low birth rates like Japan or Germany, immigration is needed to simply maintain the current size of the population. Additionally, since many of these countries will start or have already started to have a disproportionately older population, immigration can provide a needed youth infusion.

Who is Going Pay for All This?

There is a lot riding on how these countries either maintain or increase their populations. Specifically, developed nations need people to pay for the wide-reaching entitlement programs enjoyed by older citizens as they retire, such as Social Security in the U.S. It becomes harder for the population to support these programs when the number of people paying into them shrinks. As populations grow older, the number of people depending on them will continue to increase. With this is mind, countries with low birth rates either need to accept immigrants or find new ways to boost their populations naturally.

The Future of Babies

How are countries trying to up their birth rates?

While these countries grapple with declining birth rates and the need for more immigration, to quote a poem by Dylan Thomas, they, “do not go gentle into that good night.” Indeed, many of these countries already have plans in place to reverse their falling birth rates.

In Japan nearly $30 million has been designated for encouraging young, single people to meet and eventually get married. In Russia, the government directly gives couples up to $12,500 for having a second child or adopting. Many European countries meanwhile, focus on benefits after the baby is born, providing lavish maternity leave or child care. The United Sates is actually an outlier on this front, as it does not offer guaranteed maternity leave and really only provides minor tax breaks to women having children. This may explain in part why older, more secure women are the ones increasingly having children in the US.

Assistance from Technology

Technology is also playing a greater role in the number of births each year. In the United States for example, approximately 2,000 more babies were born in 2013 than in 2012 through in vitro fertilization, when an egg is directly impregnated in a medical procedure. However, there are various kinds of fertility treatments–combined they accounted for 1.5 percent of all births in the U.S. in 2013.

Private companies are also stepping into the proverbial baby-making arena. Both Apple and Facebook are offering programs that will pay to have their female workers’ eggs frozen. The idea is that once these women are at a point in their career where family seems more accessible or appropriate they can then use their frozen fertilized eggs to have children.

This approach has received mixed reviews however. While some laud the efforts as providing an avenue through which women interested in pursuing a career and a family can still hope to travel, others see it differently. To the second group, this approach does nothing to address the reasons why women feel compelled to choose. Additionally the health risks associated with having children from frozen eggs versus unfrozen are no less diminished in older women.

Conclusion

Moderating population size is a tricky task. At times it has been predicted that the growing population is unsustainable and that we are headed for disaster. Conversely, people are currently concerned about not having enough children and the subsequent dangers that would present to society.

In the United States, the birth rate has been falling more or less steadily for the last one hundred years and now hovers right around replacement levels. While there seems to be optimism following last year’s uptick in births, it follows on the heels of several years of consecutive declines that put the U.S., like many of its developed contemporaries, below replacement levels. It is still unclear if the recent increase is sustainable.

Perhaps what the declining birth rates have revealed most clearly is the changing role of women and the continued changes necessary for women to have children and still be able to pursue a professional career. The importance of this issue can be showcased by both national and private efforts to address it. Still, as of right now, the issue remains unresolved and a remedy is unclear. Even with birth rates recently back on the rise, in the future the concerns may change from the number of mouths to feed to whether or not we even have enough people to help feed them.

Resources

Primary

United Nations: Total Fertility Rate

World Bank: Fertility Rate, Total (births per woman)

Additional

Time: Rising Birth Rates a Good Sign for the Economy

Deseret New National: Can Government Incentives Reverse Falling Birth Rates?

Population Reference Bureau: World Population Data Sheet 2012

Earth Policy Institute: Education Leads to Lower Fertility and Increased Prosperity

Time: Women Keep Having Kids Later and Later

Yale Global Online: The Choice: More Immigrants or Less Citizens?

Genius: Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night

Health Day: In Vitro births Continue to Rise in the U.S.

CNN: Egg-Freezing a Better Deal for Companies Than for Women

Michael Sliwinski

Michael Sliwinski (@MoneyMike4289) is a 2011 graduate of Ohio University in Athens with a Bachelor’s in History, as well as a 2014 graduate of the University of Georgia with a Master’s in International Policy. In his free time he enjoys writing, reading, and outdoor activites, particularly basketball. Contact Michael at staff@LawStreetMedia.com.

The post Falling Fertility: The Impact of Declining Birth Rates appeared first on Law Street.

India: A Superpower on the Rise?

Michael Sliwinski — Sat, 14 Feb 2015 13:30:26 +0000

Image courtesy of [Global Panorama via Flickr]

India has long been an important nation on the international stage; its massive population and rapidly growing economy have the potential to propel it forward even further. While there have been ebbs and flows–the recent recession strongly impacted the sub-continent–things may be looking up. There’s a new Prime Minister and India is on the rise yet again. Read on to learn about India’s growth, the relationships it has with other nations, and the challenges that the country will face in coming years.

A Look Into the Past

Like China and Mesopotamia, India is often considered one of the birthplaces of civilization. The first civilization in India was founded over five thousand years ago. Since then, India saw the rise and fall of countless empires, invading forces, and ideas. Buddhism and Hinduism were also founded in India; and Islam, when it reached the area in the eighth century, came to exert a powerful influence, as well.

The story of modern India however, picks up at the beginning of the eighteenth century, when the declining Mughal Empire was conquered piecemeal by the British East India Company. The British outcompeted their French rivals and bit by bit took over the sub-continent. Yet British rule was not to last either, with a large-scale mutiny in the middle of the nineteenth century hinting at the rise of Indian nationalism.

This came to fruition after years of protest that featured leaders such as Mahatma Gandhi when India finally achieved independence in 1947. This independence, however, did not come about smoothly. The same year India became independent, it also broke into two separate nations, Hindu India and Muslim Pakistan. As many as 12.5 million people migrated to one country or the other depending on their religion. Up to one million people died in the ensuing chaos.

Rise of Modern India

After the end of colonial rule, India initially adopted a planned economic approach. The idea was to increase consumer savings, which would then lead to greater investment in the economy and growth. The plan was to create a prosperous India that was financed by its own economy and not beholden to outside forces.

While the plan had some success, however, growth remained limited in India at an average of four percent annually in the 1950s, 60s, and 70s. The plan was also plagued by unbridled population growth and inequality. The proverbial corner was turned beginning in the late 80s and early 90s when the economy was finally opened up. Growth shot up to over 6.5 percent annually, while the service sector in particular began to take off.

Move to a Market Economy

The key to the turn-around for India economically was when it moved from a series of five-year plans, as part of a planned economy adopted from its then-ally, the Soviet Union, to a market economy, which is similar to those of Western nations. Originally India adopted a socialist model as the means to improve its economy. This meant most industry, licensing, and investment infrastructure was controlled by the government. The whole idea behind this logic was to build strong home-grown industries in India, and in the process prevent the inequality notorious in capitalist societies from spreading there.

The planned economy proved ineffective. This was mainly due to low growth rates and the failure to generate high savings rates. In fact the state, far from succeeding in building up savings, actually began running up higher and higher deficits as its programs proved ineffective. Thus, spurred by this ineffectiveness and a rise of the price of oil as a result of the first gulf war which nearly caused the country to default, India made a change. The government did a complete 180, reducing state control and planning, liberalizing trade and investment, and reducing the deficit.

Following the success from the 1990s and with continued reforms, the Indian economy continued to hum along in the first decade of the 2000s, averaging greater than six percent growth annually. Rapid growth stalled, however, as it did in much of the rest of the world, following the Great Recession.

The reason that India was hit so hard was because of a failure to further liberalize policy concerning labor, energy, land reform, and infrastructure improvement. Namely the issue was in many ways the same that had been affecting India during its planned economy, despite the reforms the country had enacted in the past two decades. First labor laws were still very restrictive so it made it hard for people to move around in search of jobs. Secondly, the infrastructure was not adequately developed in India so that its manufacturers could easily export their products. Third, the country was still plagued by shortages in essential goods, such as energy. This was all compounded by the government’s vain effort to prop up the country’s currency, the Rupee. Not only has this led to a higher deficit, but also inflation, which eats away at people’s savings and makes them poorer. This led to growth rates closer to four or five percent during the recession.

After the Recession

Nevertheless, India’s economy has rebounded in the last two years and in 2014 outpaced China for the first time. This was due to several improvements. First, both the manufacturing and financial sectors improved dramatically. In addition, new Prime Minister Modi and other political leaders have worked diligently to reduce debt. Lastly, the drop in the price of oil has dramatically helped India, as most of its import deficits were due to the importation of oil to fuel its growing need.

While India has seemingly regained its status as a rapidly growing emerging market, this also comes with caveats. First, the growth figures that show it outpacing China had to be recalculated due to some errors, so many economists are treating them with skepticism. Secondly, according to a New York Times study from 2011-2012, 30 percent of Indians still live in extreme poverty, which translates approximately to 363 million people. That is more people than live in the United States. Thus, although India may recoup its status as a major, up-and-coming economy, there is still room for improvement. The following video gives an outlook on the impact reforms could have on India’s economy.

India’s Friends and Enemies

Pakistan

When discussing international concerns for India, the discussion always starts with Pakistan. The two nations were founded at the same time when British rule in India ended; however, the division of the two countries was plagued by extreme violence and a persistently strong feeling of animosity. The situation has in no way improved by the three wars and ongoing proxy war being waged over Kashmir. The conflict in Kashmir stems back to the separation of India and Pakistan.

At the time of independence, there were 562 princely kingdoms that were independent from either country and could choose which one they wanted to join. Both countries therefore were eager to recruit these principalities–Kashmir was one of the most coveted. Pakistan seemed to have the upper hand, as 70 percent of the population was Muslim; however, at the time, the ruler was Hindu so India claimed the area on that argument and still occupies it to this day. Aside from the direct conflicts there, Pakistan has also waged a guerrilla campaign to free the territory from India and incorporate it into the Muslim state of Pakistan.

On top of all that, both countries possess nuclear weapons and flaunt their capabilities, an example of which was the corresponding nuclear tests during the 90s. The video below provides a summary of the two nations’ conflict.

Nonetheless, hopes for thawed relations came when Prime Minister Modi was elected last year–one of his campaign promises was to improve relations between the two countries; however, lately Modi’s speeches have been full of aggressive rhetoric and the Pakistani military continues to support anti-India terror groups so change has yet to come. An example of this is when he suggested Pakistan was, “waging a proxy war” in Kashmir. He has also canceled several meetings with Pakistani officials, including one potential rendezvous at the United Nations.

China

India’s other major neighbor in Asia is China. Like Pakistan, India also fought a brief war with China in 1962 and has since maintained a relatively tense border with the country in the Himalayas. Tthe relationship with China has steadily improved in other areas as the countries have signed a number of trade agreements. The relationship was tested in 2013 with a Chinese incursion into Indian territory; however, no apparent serious harm came of it.

The lack of consternation may be rooted in how the countries view each other. In India, China is seen as a chief rival and also a source of emulation economically. For China, which is stronger militarily and economically, India is not regarded as much of a rival.

United States

Like its relationship with both Pakistan and China, India’s relationship with the U.S. is complicated. The countries originally shared strong ties, with the U.S. aiding India during the conflict with China. Relations were strained following America’s decision to side with Pakistan in its 1971 war with India. Things were further exacerbated by an arms treaty signed between India and the USSR and India’s testing of nuclear weapons in the 70s.

Relations seemed to be improving in the 1990s as India opened up its economy and moved to a free market approach. But once again ties between the nations weakened in 1998 when India again tested nuclear weapons, which drew condemnation and sanctions from the U.S. The sanctions were quickly repealed though and the two nations became close once more over a commitment to combat terrorism. The two sides have continued to grow closer since then, signing everything from trade to weapons agreements. In 2013 an Indian delegate was arrested for committing visa fraud, causing major waves. The two sides have seemed to yet again overcome this hiccup though, following the president’s recent trip to India where he reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to friendship.

The relationship with the U.S. also seems likely to continue to improve, despite numerous setbacks, many of which were over nuclear policy that now seem settled. While the U.S. may want to utilize India against a rising China, the two sides also value each other as trade partners. The relationship is further enhanced by the U.S.’s further distancing itself from Pakistan.

Domestic Concerns for India

While India navigates the dangerous game of international politics, it has internal issues to consider, as well. First and foremost is the status of women. While seemingly no country in the world can boast of total equality between men and woman, the situation is especially bad in India. While some women may enjoy access to lucrative lifestyles, there is a virtually systemic oppression of women in education, marriage, and the economy. A grisly example was the gang-rape of a woman by six men in Delhi in 2013 that resulted in the woman’s death. While four of the men were eventually sentenced to death, their crime highlighted a culture where women are often blamed for rape and where the courts are slow to act.

Women, of course, are not the only group to be institutionally marginalized in India. The caste system has existed for a long time. In this system people are born into and can expect to rise no further than a particular caste or class, which is often associated with some type of profession. While some efforts have succeeded at down-playing caste origins in jobs, castes still play a large role in social interactions and romantic relationships.

The persistence of discrimination, both against women and people of lower classes, speaks to the issue of inequality in the country. According to a report from the United Nations – Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (UNESCAP), income inequality actually increased in India from the 1990s to late 2000s.

India’s population is the second largest in the world at more than 1.2 billion people. With birth rates still outpacing death rates, that number is only going to continue to increase until it is expected to plateau in 2050. The population of India is also expected to surpass that of China for the world’s largest along the way, in 2025. All these extra people mean more food, housing, and jobs for a country that is already hard pressed to generate them at current levels. The accompanying video highlights the issues with poverty in India.

Domestically, though changes have been made incrementally, the sweeping changes necessary to fix many of India’s societal ills seem unlikely. As the infamous Delhi rape trial showed, while courts can be forced into action when thrust into the spotlight, they have been very slow to protect women. This also speaks to a problem of institutionalized marginalization for a large chunk of society, which has lasted for many years and thus is unlikely to simply go away now. Couple these issues with continued population explosion and the poverty that haunts India is likely to continue. Particularly with inequality rising and wealth being consolidated into the hands of the elites, much as it is in western nations.

Conclusion

After initially struggling following independence, India has enjoyed strong recent growth. While that growth was threatened by the great recession, India was able to pull through and even outpace China, if the numbers are to be believed. Going forward, Asia’s other potential superpower has many issues to deal with. Internationally, serious issues still exist concerning the relationship between India and Pakistan. India’s relationship with Asia’s affirmed rising super power is also in question as India moves closer to fellow democracy in the United States, while China seemingly drifts closer to fellow autocrat Russia.

Domestically it is more of the same, with concern over the economy dominating. Yet other issues also exist, namely an entrenched class system and the low status of women. Thus, while India has come very far, there is still a long way to go. Therefore while it is still possible for India to act on its superpower potential and one day rival China as Asia’s premier power, reforms and improvements are likely required along the way.