In a mad dash to secure support for the Republican health care bill, President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to House Republicans late Thursday: pass the law, or keep the Affordable Care Act in place. Trump is dealing with a splintered House: the far-right flank, including the Freedom Caucus, thinks that the bill isn’t extreme enough. On the other hand, moderate Republicans want the bill to preserve some elements of Obamacare, like Medicaid spending. The House is expected to weigh in on the bill at 4:45 Friday afternoon–though the vote was originally expected for Thursday, so a further delay is not unthinkable.

“We have a great bill, and I think we have a good chance, but it’s only politics,” Trump said Thursday after a day of negotiations at the White House with members of the Freedom Caucus. It seems the ultraconservative group of House Republicans successfully wrangled Trump, who agreed to some of their requested changes to the bill: no guarantees for maternity care, emergency services, or mental health and wellness programs. Members of the Freedom Caucus, an increasingly powerful group, have threatened to oppose the bill unless it was amended in a more conservative fashion.

“We’re committed to stay here until we get it done,” Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC), and the chairman of the Freedom Caucus, said on Thursday. “So whether the vote is tonight, tomorrow or five days from here, the president will get a victory.” But even after what seemed like a successful meeting, Trump is upping the pressure on the Freedom Caucus to support the bill. On Friday morning, Trump tweeted:

The irony is that the Freedom Caucus, which is very pro-life and against Planned Parenthood, allows P.P. to continue if they stop this plan!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 24, 2017

The Freedom Caucus is not the only skeptical Republican faction that is demanding changes to the existing health bill, the American Health Care Act. Moderate Republicans–in the House and the Senate–would like to see changes made in the opposite direction; Medicaid spending, which covers many of their constituents, is a vital component of the bill for them. So the quagmire then, for Trump, and for House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), the bill’s architect, is how to unite the competing Republican visions for the bill. No Democrats are expected to support the legislation, and only 22 Republicans can dissent for the bill to pass.

Even if Trump gets his way, and the bill passes the House on Friday, it will likely get a major facelift in the Senate before hitting his desk for a signature. On Thursday, President Barack Obama, whose health care bill has been mercilessly targeted by Republicans for seven years, sent a convivial message of hope to his followers on Thursday, the seventh anniversary of the signing of Obamacare.

“I’ve always said we should build on this law, just as Americans of both parties worked to improve Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid over the years,” Obama wrote. “So if Republicans are serious about lowering costs while expanding coverage to those who need it, and if they’re prepared to work with Democrats and objective evaluators in finding solutions that accomplish those goals — that’s something we all should welcome.”

Alec Siegel

Alec Siegel is a staff writer at Law Street Media. When he’s not working at Law Street he’s either cooking a mediocre tofu dish or enjoying a run in the woods. His passions include: gooey chocolate chips, black coffee, mountains, the Animal Kingdom in general, and John Lennon. Baklava is his achilles heel. Contact Alec at ASiegel@LawStreetMedia.com.

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Representative Kevin McCarthy just abruptly announced that he will no longer be seeking the Speaker of the House position. McCarthy, the current House majority leader, was the clear frontrunner for outgoing Speaker John Boehner’s seat. The election for the speakership, which was scheduled for the end of the month, will now be postponed to a later date. McCarthy’s decision surprised nearly everyone, most notably the Republican leadership who was prepared to back him.

While it is currently unclear exactly why McCarthy decided to stop pursuing the speakership, several recent events may have shaped his decision. McCarthy recently faced a lot of scrutiny after his comments on the Select Committee on Benghazi implied that Republicans used their investigation into former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for political gain. In an interview with Fox News, McCarthy said,

Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right? But we put together a Benghazi special committee, a select committee. What are her numbers today? Her numbers are dropping. Why? Because she’s un-trustable. But no one would have known any of that had happened had we not fought and made that happen.

That comment was perceived by many to imply that the ongoing investigation into Clinton’s response to the 2012 terrorist attack in Benghazi, Libya has been used to damage the public’s perception of Clinton–and that those efforts were yielding results. McCarthy later said that his words were misunderstood and defended the integrity of the Benghazi Committee.

Despite these efforts, his original comments have already had important consequences. Hillary Clinton began using what he said in campaign ads and House Democrats initiated an all-out campaign to end the Benghazi Committee based on McCarthy’s gaffe.

But what is arguably the most significant factor at play is the emerging control that the conservative Freedom Caucus is exhibiting over the rest of the Republican Party. In recent years, there have been several signs of the emerging disagreement between the establishment wing of the Republican Party and the more conservative Tea Party wing, but the emerging leadership crisis is particularly significant. Past examples of this include recent budget fights–like the government shutdown over Obamacare in 2013–and the battle over the Department of Homeland Security’s funding, which was due to conservatives’ intense disagreement with the President’s executive action on immigration.

One of the reasons why John Boehner resigned from his position as Speaker was the challenge that the Tea Party created for him and the rest of the Party leadership. This was made clear when North Carolina Representative Mark Medows, filed a “motion to vacate the chair” in July, which in effect was an attempt to fire Boehner as speaker. Although the motion didn’t make it to the House floor–Boehner had to seek out Democratic support to prevent a vote–the message was clear. He eventually stepped down as means to help keep the Republicans together, but the factions within the party remain pronounced.

Although McCarthy was a pretty clear frontrunner for Speaker, he did have challengers. Representative Jason Chaffetz from Utah announced his intention to run for the speakership last week, and the Freedom Caucus recently endorsed Representative Daniel Webster from Florida. The Freedom Caucus, which has about 30 members, has enough influence to render the Speaker election particularly challenging. Once it comes to a vote, the incoming Speaker will need at least 218 votes to secure the position. There are currently 247 House Republicans, which means that if the caucus votes together, a candidate would need to get support from some Democrats to win the election.

While it is unlikely that McCarthy’s decision was because he didn’t think he would win the speakership, it does highlight the influence of Republican infighting on the Speaker election. Sources close to McCarthy told Vox,

It certainly wasn’t about getting the votes. That could’ve happened. However, he’s not going to be repeatedly attacked by 40 members of our conference. Nothing will ever be good enough for them, and Kevin doesn’t want to put his family through that and he doesn’t want to put the 200-plus other members through that.

Regardless of whether McCarthy thought he could win the election, he knew that without the explicit support of the Party’s conservative wing the speaker’s role would be extremely challenging. Republicans will now need to find a leader that can unite the establishment and conservative wings of the party, which will certainly be a tall order.

Kevin Rizzo

Kevin Rizzo is the Crime in America Editor at Law Street Media. An Ohio Native, the George Washington University graduate is a founding member of the company. Contact Kevin at krizzo@LawStreetMedia.com.

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