On Sunday, Ecuadorians went to the polls to vote for their next president. Though eight candidates were listed on the ballot, Ecuadorians were ultimately expected to choose between Lenín Moreno, from the ruling socialist Alianza PAIS party, and Guillermo Lasso, a center-right candidate running for the second time. With almost 90 percent of the vote counted, Moreno leads Lasso by 10.8 percent. However, Moreno’s 39.11 percent share of the vote leaves him just shy of the 40 percent required to avoid a run off election and win outright. In spite of his comfortable first round win, a run off could spell the end for Moreno, a decade of socialist rule in Ecuador, and hammer yet another nail in the coffin of Latin America’s leftist resurgence.
Over the past few years, the ruling party’s popularity has waned. The early days of the Alianza PAIS era were marked by strong economic growth but as global oil prices dropped, the commodity-dependent Ecuadorian economy began to stall. Allegations of government corruption compounded credibility issues posed by the economic downturn. While Moreno was expected to win the first round of votes, it was unclear whether or not he would be able to win the election outright. Looking increasingly vulnerable, Moreno could very well lose the potential run off.
Lasso’s objective was to prevent Moreno from reaching 40 percent in the first round so as to build a majority coalition capable of defeating Moreno in a second round. In his speech last night, Lasso called for the 60 percent of Ecuadorians that rejected Moreno to form a centrist coalition. After placing third, center-left candidate Cynthia Viteri urged her supporters to vote for Lasso. However, even if Lasso drew the support of every single Viteri voter, he would still be about six percent short of a run off-winning majority. Fourth-placed center-left candidate, Paco Moncayo, received nearly seven percent of the vote but refused to support either candidate in a second round.
While Viteri’s and Moncayo’s supporters rejected Alianza PAIS, it is important to note that they sit left-of-center. It remains to be seen what portion of this sizable center-left voting block will opt for centrism over a leftist status quo. If a run off becomes a reality, Lasso and Moreno will be forced to fight for scraps.
Lasso has promised a radical departure from current government policy. He has vowed to cut taxes for business to encourage foreign investment and slash government spending. All of this, Lasso claims, will result in a million new jobs for Ecuadorians. While Moreno has promised to make alterations to socialist rule, he intends on advancing Correa’s legacy. Over the past decade, Alianza PAIS members have worked to reduce poverty and have joined other leftist Latin American leaders in demanding increased regional integration.
Moreno’s predecessor, Rafaela Correa, took office as the “pink tide” swept through Latin America. Newly elected left-leaning governments throughout the region promised a shift away from neoliberalism by using commodity exports to increase social spending. Many of these leftist movements were unable to overcome depressed commodity markets and their once infatuated support bases began to shrink. While Latin America’s pink tide is not dead, it is struggling to counter those calling for a move back toward neoliberal policies. Ecuador’s election could be yet another indicator that the “pink tide” is on its way out.